BTC price us building steam, a $3 billion trigger could set it off: Crypto Daybook Americas
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin looks to be gathering bullish momentum, with volatility expected to increase as prices near a $3 billion trigger point.
The leading cryptocurrency by market value climbed through $72,100 during European hours, the widely tracked average price over the past 50 days. According to analysts, a firm move above this level would confirm bullish momentum, potentially drawing in more buyers.
Volatility is likely to pick up should prices near $75,000. That’s where options market makers, who provide order-book liquidity and ensure a seamless trading experience, are holding net “short gamma” positions worth $3 billion, according to Markus Thielen, the founder of 10x Research.
It means that as prices climb toward that level, these entities are likely to buy to rebalance their net exposure to neutral even as prices rise. This so-called dealer hedging could boost market volatility, potentially accelerating any rally. Note that market makers make money through the bid-ask spread, not price direction.
“The options market shows roughly $3 billion of negative gamma exposure at the $75,000 strike, meaning dealers are likely short gamma around this level. As Bitcoin moves higher toward this region, dealer hedging flows can begin to play a more important role in shaping price dynamics,” Thielen said in a note to clients.
That’s not, however, a set-in-concrete scenario. Alex Kuptsikevich, the chief market analyst at FxPro, worries that macro headwinds will arrest gains in bitcoin.
“External factors are acting as a headwind, including rising oil and dollar prices, as well as the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indices falling to their 200-day lows. We doubt Bitcoin will have the strength to withstand the wind for long, and internal resistance may soon become a significant obstacle to growth,” he said in an email.
Traditional markets are indeed sending risk-off signals. The strongest hint comes from the U.S. Treasury market, which underpins global finance. The MOVE index, which measures the 30-day expected price turbulence in Treasury notes, surged over 21% to 95 points Thursday, the biggest single-day rise since October 2024, according to data source TradingView.
Sharp spikes in Treasury volatility often tighten money worldwide, choking credit flows and sparking broad selling across markets. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Crypto
- Macro
- March 13, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. GDP growth rate QoQ second estimate for Q4 Est. 1.4% (Prev. 1.4%;)
- March 13, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. core PCE price index MoM for January Est. 0.4% (Prev. 0.4%)
- March 13, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. personal spending MoM for January Est. 0.3% (Prev. 0.4%)
- March 13, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. JOLTS job openings for January Est. 6.7M (Prev. 6.542M)
- March 13, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary for March (Prev. 56.6)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- March 13: Bit Digital (BTBT), pre-market, -$0.01
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Governance votes & calls
- No major calls scheduled.
- Unlocks
- March 13: WhiteBit Coin (WBT) to unlock 27.77% of its circulating supply worth $4.59 billion.
- Token Launches
- March 13: Ether.fi KAT token rewards to be distributed.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
Market Movements
- BTC is up 2.95% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $72,457.14 (24hrs: +3.14%)
- ETH is up 2.92% at $2,128.69 (24hrs: +3%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 3.14% at 2,068.83 (24hrs: +3.01%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 1 bps at 2.79%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0015% (1.6688% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is up 0.42% at 100.16.
- Gold futures are down 0.44% at $5,093.40
- Silver futures are down 2.11% at $82.89
- Nikkei 225 closed down 1.16% at 53,819.61
- Hang Seng closed down 0.98% at 25,465.60
- FTSE 100 is down 0.43% at 10,260.60
- Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.71% at 5,708.34
- DJIA closed on Thursday down 1.56% at 46,677.85.
- S&P 500 closed down 1.52% at 6,672.62
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.78% at 22,311.98
- S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.84% at 32,840.60
- S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.43% at 3,611.39.
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 6 bps at 4.27%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.30% at 6,697.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.29% at 24,631.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.34% at 46,881.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 59.44% (0.24%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.0294 (0.01%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 984 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $31.34
- Total fees: 2.69 BTC / $188,598
- CME Futures Open Interest: 110,290 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 14.2 oz.
- BTC vs gold market cap: 4.82%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows bitcoin’s daily price swings in candlestick format since late 2025. It also plots the Fibonacci retracements of the January-February selloff and the 50-day simple moving average of bitcoin’s price.
- BTC’s price is looking to top the 50-day SMA line. That would shift the focus to next resistance level at $74,564, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the selloff.
- On the other hand, a failure to penetrate the 50-day SMA could embolden sellers, potentially leading to a drop below $70,000.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $193.23 (–2.72%), +1.96% at $197.02 in pre-market
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $114.18 (+1.21%), +0.58% at $114.84
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $20.63 (–3.87%), +1.89% at $21.02
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.76 (+2.46%), +1.60% at $8.90
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.50 (–2.09%), +1.59% at $14.73
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.24 (–1.81%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.55 (–2.65%), +1.57% at $9.70
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $9.96 (–8.71%), unchanged in pre-market
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $37.96 (–2.47%)
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $36.24 (–2.55%), +0.44% at $36.40
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $137.34 (–0.72%), +2.49% at $140.76
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $8.83 (–4.33%), +1.59% at $8.97
- SharpLink (SBET): closed at $7.48 (–1.45%), +2.54% at $7.67
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.93 (–9.71%), +4.61% at $0.97
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.15 (–1.71%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: $53.8 million
- Cumulative net flows: $55.93 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.29 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: $72.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.75 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 5.71 million
Source: Farside Investors
