The USD is mixed vs the major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD. What next?
2026-03-11 12:19:00
U.S. stocks are trading marginally higher at the start of the North American session, while bond yields and crude oil prices are also edging higher as markets position ahead of key inflation data.
At 8:30 AM ET, the market will get the latest reading on U.S. CPI, one of the most closely watched inflation indicators. Expectations are for the headline CPI to rise 0.2% month-over-month, while core CPI—excluding food and energy—is expected to increase 0.3%.
Even with the expected modest monthly gains, the year-over-year inflation measures remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, and progress toward that goal has been slow and uneven. As a result, today’s report will be closely scrutinized for signs of whether inflation pressures are continuing to cool or proving more persistent, which could influence expectations for the path of Fed policy going forward.
Keep in mind that CPI has remained above the Fed’s 2% target since April 2021, initially driven by the supply shocks that followed the COVID pandemic. While many of those disruptions have eased, inflation has proven stubborn. More recently, factors such as tariffs and immigration policies that affect labor supply in sectors like agriculture and food production have contributed to keeping price pressures elevated. Arguably, inflation would need to run below 2% for a period of time to offset the cumulative price increases consumers have faced since 2021.
The good news is that real wages on a year-over-year basis have been positive since mid-2023, running at roughly +1%, which means wage gains are finally outpacing inflation again. However, the stretch from 2021 through much of 2023 was painful for many households, with real wages frequently running −2% or worse, eroding purchasing power. That dynamic helped reinforce what many describe as a “K-shaped economy,” where lower- and middle-income households feel the squeeze from higher prices, while higher-income households—often with stronger wage growth and asset gains—are better positioned to absorb the inflation shock.
In the video above, Greg Michalowski of InvestingLive.com takes a technical look at the market ahead of the CPI release. He outlines the current bias, key risk levels, and potential targets for EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD, explaining the technical reasons behind those levels and why traders should be paying attention to them.
In markets that are often volatile and heavily influenced by news headlines, having clearly defined bias, risk, and target levels can help traders stay disciplined. When the road gets bumpy around major economic releases like CPI, those technical guideposts can help smooth the path and keep traders focused on the levels that matter most.
