2026-03-09 03:07:00
It’s always darkest just before dawn.
We’re one TACO away from a massive reversal in sentiment. The question is: Will Iran (and Israel) agree to stop the bombs if Trump asks?
That would be a huge climbdown from the President but he’s not going to like headlines about oil going up the most in one-day ever. It will be impossible to shift the blame for that and Americas were against the war to begin with.
AUD/USD is notably bouncing from the bottom earlier today. It’s now at the best levels so far on the day, though still down 33 pips to 0.6995. It’s in the opening gap now and if it can close it, we could see some broader risk appetite return.
Every trader you talk to is trying to look beyond this conflict and hoping/anticipating that in a few months it will be a memory and the global economy will remain in decent shape. Now if oil stays at $115, that’s just not going to happen but the pressure to make a deal is quickly rising and I doubt Trump can sustain another three weeks of this.
If you’re looking for a contra signal, here is one:
Just last week, he was saying that the oil market was signaling the war wouldn’t spiral and that was bullish for stocks. Now he’s singing the opposite tune.
I don’t think there is any rush to front-run any headlines but it’s the time to have the trading app open and dialed into the news. The real black swan right now would be if the US throws everything at getting oil prices lower, including dropping Iranian sanctions or Russian sanctions. That seems unthinkable right now but self-preservation is a powerful force in politics and at $115 oil, Republicans are facing a very rough midterm.
