2026-03-09 02:12:00
Today is now the largest one-day percentage gain in oil futures history, or it will be if it holds.
The April contract just crossed a 25% gain. That breaks the record on April 2, 2020. On that day, WTI jumped 24.7% to $25.32 in anticipation of significant production cuts after Trump said Saudi Arabia and Russia would agree to a deal. Of course, that gain was on an extremely low base so it was much in dollar terms compared to today’s $22 gain.
In nominal terms, on Sept 22, 2008, oil rose over $25 to $130 before settling at $120.92, marking a record one-day dollar gain of $16.37. Electronic crude oil trading was temporarily halted by NYMEX when the daily price rise limit of $10 was reached. Those limits have since been changed.
In 1990, when Iraq invaded Kuwait WTI surged from roughly $21 at the end of July to $28 by August 6—a nearly 33% increase in just a few days but none of the gains neared 25%.
Today’s gain is a result of a market seeing an impossible situation in the Strait of Hormuz. The US has committed itself to a war and the market senses that Trump could TACO. At the same time, the spike in oil prices is suddenly leverage for Iran and by continuing to strangle the Strait, it can exert more pressure on the United States to abandon attack plans.
The risk is that even if the US tries to broker a deal, Iran continues to push.
In order to get more leverage, the US is likely to escalate its bombing campaign but it’s unclear if they’re capable of preventing Iran from attacking the 120 km wide Strait. In short, the US may find itself in a quagmire.
There appears to be increasing anxiety in the White House as it fails to coordinate with Israel. An Axios report today suggested the US wasn’t happy with Israel bombing Iran’s oil stockpiles. That report was validated by a post from Senator Lindsay Graham a short time ago.
He wrote:
Our allies in Israel have shown amazing capability when it comes to collapsing the murderous regime in Iran. America is most appreciative.
However, there will be a day soon that the Iranian people will be in charge of their own fate, not the murderous ayatollah’s regime.
In that regard, please be cautious about what targets you select. Our goal is to liberate the Iranian people in a fashion that does not cripple their chance to start a new and better life when this regime collapses. The oil economy of Iran will be essential to that endeavor.
The further risk is that Israel is actually defying the USA and will continue to make war against Iran, even as oil prices reach intolerable levels for the White House.
