2026-03-04 16:44:00
The USD/JPY is under renewed selling pressure today, emerging as one of the market’s biggest movers with a decline of nearly 0.50%. As broad USD strength wanes, the pair has retreated to a “make-or-break” technical junction that has defined the trend for nearly a month.
The 100-Hour Moving Average: A Line in the Sand
Since February 11, the rising 100-hour Moving Average (MA) has served as a reliable guide for the USD/JPY uptrend. Buyers have consistently stepped in at this level to defend the pair’s trajectory, most notably during the late-week lows of the previous session.
Earlier today, the pair bottomed exactly at this MA, sparking a brief bounce toward 157.41. However, that recovery lost steam just shy of the primary topside resistance zone between 157.65 and 157.73.
Current Technical Outlook
The price is currently retesting the 100-hour MA at 156.87. This level serves as the current barometer for market sentiment:
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The Bullish Defense: If the price manages to hold above 156.87, the buyers remain technically in control, keeping the door open for another run at the 157.70 resistance area.
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The Bearish Break: A sustained move below this moving average would signal that “sellers are banging on the door.” If support fails here, expect a shift in bias as buyers pull back, likely exposing the 200-hour Moving Average at 156.17 as the next major downside target.
