2026-02-25 10:00:00
- Prior +2.0%
- Core CPI +2.2% vs +2.2% y/y prelim
- Prior +2.3%
No changes to the preliminary estimates. Compared with December 2025, annual inflation fell in twenty-three Member States, remained stable in one and rose in three.
In January 2026, the highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation rate came from services (+1.45 percentage points, pp), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (+0.51 pp), non-energy industrial goods (+0.09 pp) and energy (-0.39 pp).
ECB policymakers have been repeating they are in a “good place” on policy and they will not respond to small or short-term deviations from the 2% inflation target.
The market is pricing just a 20% probability of a rate cut by year-end, and for that to rise, we will likely need a negative shock like another serious trade war with the US or a hawkish Fed pivot that triggers a selloff in stock markets.
