2026-02-23 02:23:00
Goldman raised its 2026 Q4 Brent/WTI forecasts to $60/$56 on tighter OECD stocks, while maintaining a 2026 surplus assumption. The bank sees firmer prices in 2027 but flags sanctions relief in Iran/Russia as a key downside risk.
Summary:
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Goldman raises 2026 Q4 Brent/WTI by $6 to $60/$56
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Assumes no Iran-related supply disruption and still sees a 2026 surplus
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Upgrade driven by lower-than-expected OECD inventories
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Sees 2027 averages at $65/$61
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Forecasts recovery to $70/$66 by Dec 2027 on firm demand, slower supply growth
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Flags $5/$8 downside risk to 2026 Q4 if Iran/Russia sanctions relief boosts supply
Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecasts for late 2026, citing tighter OECD inventories, while maintaining that the global market is likely to remain in surplus next year absent major geopolitical disruption.
The bank lifted its 2026 fourth-quarter Brent forecast by $6 to $60 per barrel, and its WTI forecast by $6 to $56, reflecting lower-than-expected stock levels across OECD economies. Despite the upward revision, Goldman continues to assume no Iran-related supply shock, keeping its broader 2026 balance framework intact.
The adjustment suggests that inventory dynamics, rather than a shift in core supply-demand assumptions, are driving the near-term upgrade. Lower OECD stocks imply a smaller cushion against demand surprises or supply interruptions, tightening the price outlook at the margin even within a surplus environment.
Looking further out, Goldman expects prices to firm in 2027. The bank projects average Brent/WTI prices of $65/$61 in 2027, before rising toward $70/$66 by December 2027. The expected recovery reflects solid global demand growth alongside a moderation in non-OPEC supply expansion, particularly as US production growth slows and capital discipline remains broadly intact across major producers.
However, Goldman flagged meaningful downside risks. Potential sanctions relief involving Iran or Russia could accelerate landed stock builds and unlock incremental supply into the market. In that scenario, the bank estimates downside risk of approximately $5 per barrel for Brent and $8 for WTI relative to its 2026 Q4 forecasts.
The note highlights the continued sensitivity of oil markets to geopolitical developments and sanctions policy, even as the underlying supply-demand picture remains broadly balanced. For now, Goldman’s base case assumes no major disruption — but also no rapid easing of sanctions that would materially alter supply trajectories.
