2026-02-18 19:06:00
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20-year notes at a high yield of 4.664%, which tailed the when-issued level (4.644%) by 2.0 basis points — a sign of softer demand. The bid-to-cover ratio came in at 2.36X, below the 6-month average of 2.66X, reflecting weaker overall participation. Dealers were forced to take down 17.6% of the issue, well above the 6-month average of 10.1%, another indication that indirect and direct buyers were less aggressive.
In the aftermath, yields moved higher. The 10-year yield is up 3.2 basis points, while the 2-year yield is higher by 2.0 basis points, both hovering near their intraday highs. The dollar has firmed alongside the move in yields, adding pressure to the EURUSD.
Technically, the EURUSD is trading at a new session low and is now approaching the next key support zone between 1.1765 and 1.1778. This area has strong historical significance. It acted as a ceiling from late December through January 23, and later flipped to become a floor between February 2 and February 6, where declines repeatedly stalled. The pair is now rotating back toward that former swing zone, making it a critical decision point.
If the level holds as support, buyers could attempt a rebound toward the 50% midpoint of the 2026 trading range at 1.1830. However, if downside momentum builds and the pair breaks decisively below 1.1765, the technical bias would shift more clearly bearish. In that case, traders would target 1.1726, followed by the rising 100-day moving average at 1.1687 as the next downside objectives.
In short, weaker auction demand has pushed yields and the dollar higher, with EURUSD now testing a key swing area that will likely determine the next directional move.
Technical Summary & Bias
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Immediate Support: 1.1765 – 1.1778 (major swing area; former ceiling turned floor)
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Next Downside Targets: 1.1726, then the 100-day MA at 1.1687
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Upside Rebound Target: 1.1830 (50% midpoint of the 2026 trading range)
Bias: The near-term bias is tilted bearish while price remains below the low from yesterday at 1.18034 and the 50% retracement level at 1.1830 and continues to pressure the 1.1765–1.1778 support zone. A sustained break below that swing area would increase downside momentum toward 1.1726 and potentially the 100-day moving average at 1.1687. Conversely, if support holds and the pair rotates higher, a move back above 1.1830 would be needed to shift the tone more neutral-to-bullish.
