2026-02-18 13:30:00
- Prior was +5.3%
- Durable goods orders ex-transport vs +0.3% expected
- Prior ex-transport +0.4%
- Durable goods ex-defense % vs +6.5% prior
- Non-defense capital goods ex-air % vs +0.4% expected
- Prior +0.4%
- Shipments vs -0.2% prior
USD/JPY was trading at 153.66 ahead of the data, the market was pricing in 60 bps of easing.
The durable goods report through the fall told a story of volatile headline numbers masking steadier underlying demand, with aircraft orders driving sharp month-to-month swings.
In September, new orders rose 0.5% to $313.7 billion, marking a second consecutive monthly increase following a strong 3.0% gain in August. Transportation equipment edged up 0.4%, while broader gains were seen across electrical equipment (+1.5%), primary metals (+1.4%), and computers and electronic products (+0.5%). Excluding transportation, orders rose a solid 0.6%. Core capital goods orders (nondefense ex-aircraft), a key proxy for business spending plans, increased 0.9% for the second straight month, signaling healthy investment momentum heading into Q4.
October saw a sharp reversal, with orders plunging 2.2% to $307.4 billion — worse than the expected 1.5% decline. A 23.7% collapse in aircraft orders drove the headline drop, pulling transportation equipment down 6.5%. Both nondefense and defense aircraft orders saw steep declines of 20.1% and 32.4%, respectively. However, the details were more reassuring: excluding transportation, orders still rose 0.2%, and core capex orders increased 0.5% for a fourth consecutive month. Machinery (+0.8%), fabricated metals (+0.5%), and computers (+1.0%) all posted gains.
November delivered a strong rebound, with orders surging 5.3% to $323.8 billion — well above the 3.0–3.7% consensus — as transportation equipment soared 14.7%, fueled by a 97.6% spike in civilian aircraft bookings tied to large orders at a major airshow. Electrical equipment (+1.7%), fabricated metals (+1.0%), machinery (+0.5%), and computers (+0.2%) all contributed. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.5%, while excluding defense they jumped 6.6%. Core capex orders rose 0.7%, extending the string of gains and pointing to solid business investment heading into 2026.
