2026-02-17 04:36:00
- Japan 5-year JGB auction sees steady demand, bid-to-cover at 3.10
- RBNZ to hold, signal rate hikes ahead, ING. Upside risks for NZ/US toward 0.62 by year-end
- India central bank finalises easier foreign borrowing rules for corporates
- Oil steady as Iran drills near Strait of Hormuz ahead of US talks
- US dollar positioning hits record underweight in Bank of America survey
- Gold and silver both lower into thin Asia trade
- Reminder, China, Singapore & Hong Kong markets are all closed today, Tuesday, February 17
- BOJ likely to raise rates 25bp April, former board member says. Gradual move toward 1.25%
- RBA minutes show inflation risks ‘shifted materially’ behind February rate hike
- ICYMI: China to remove tariffs on imports from 53 African nations from May 1
- FX option expiries for 17 February 10am New York cut
- Soft landing looks more plausible, but the Fed isn’t ready to call it done.
- RBNZ expected to hold rates as higher food price inflation adds limited pressure
- RBA February minutes to detail case for rate hike, set to reinforce tightening bias
At a glance:
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USD/JPY fell sharply after a Bloomberg report flagged April as the likeliest timing for the next BOJ rate hike, citing an ex-BOJ board member.
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Broader USD firmed modestly against most majors despite yen strength.
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RBA minutes showed a hold was considered but a 25bp hike seen as the stronger case; no discussion of 50bp.
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Thin liquidity due to US Presidents Day and Lunar New Year holidays across much of Asia.
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RBNZ decision due Wednesday; widely expected to hold, focus on forward guidance.
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Gold and silver edged lower.
USD/JPY dropped at pace during the session following a Bloomberg report citing former Bank of Japan board member Seiji Adachi, who said April is the most likely timing for the next rate hike. Policymakers are seen waiting for wage negotiation results and updated forecasts before moving, with further tightening toward 1.25% still considered possible. The move reinforced expectations that policy normalization in Japan is not finished, lending support to the yen.
Elsewhere across FX, the US dollar was a little firmer overall, gaining modest ground against several majors even as it softened versus JPY.
Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia showed the board did consider leaving rates unchanged at its February meeting, but ultimately judged there was a stronger case for a 25bp increase. There was no indication that a 50bp move was seriously contemplated. The minutes reiterated the strategy of returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe while preserving employment gains, a balance that suggests a likely pause in March. Next week’s January monthly CPI data will be key in shaping that decision.
Price action was partly distorted by holiday-thinned liquidity. US markets were closed for Presidents Day on Monday, while Lunar New Year holidays kept mainland China, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan offline here today, limiting participation.
Looking ahead, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Wednesday, February 18. The policy statement is due at 2pm New Zealand time (0100 GMT / 2000 US Eastern on Tuesday). The bank is widely expected to remain on hold, with markets focused on whether policymakers begin signalling renewed tightening later this year.
In commodities, gold and silver both lost ground during the session.
