2026-02-09 16:02:00
- 1 year inflation at 3.1% vs 3.4% in December
- 3-year inflation unchanged at 3%
- 5-year inflation unchanged at 3%
- Expectations for credit availability declined
- Labor market views mostly improved
- Home price inflation 2.9% vs 3.0% prior
- Households less hopeful on current and future financial situation
No big surprises here and there was no market reaction. Still, it’s good news for those looking for rate cuts.
Back in November 2025, median inflation expectations held steady at 3.2 percent for the one-year horizon and 3.0 percent for both three-year and five-year horizons, though medical cost growth expectations surged to the highest level since January 2014. December saw one-year inflation expectations rise to 3.4 percent while medium- and longer-term expectations remained unchanged at 3.0 percent. Notably, the mean perceived probability of finding a job if currently employed fell to a series-low 43.1 percent, marking the second series low in six months. Delinquency expectations also deteriorated, rising to 15.3 percent—the highest since April 2020—particularly among older workers and lower-income households.
The Survey of Consumer Expectations, conducted monthly by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data, provides comprehensive insights into American households’ economic outlook through a nationally representative internet-based panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Launched in 2013, the survey tracks consumers’ inflation expectations at one-year, three-year, and five-year horizons, along with detailed views on job prospects, earnings growth, household spending, and credit access. Unlike traditional cross-sectional surveys, this rotating panel design allows respondents to participate for up to twelve months, enabling researchers to observe how individual expectations evolve over time. The survey breaks down expectations by age, geography, income, education, and numeracy, providing granular detail on how different demographic groups view economic conditions.
