2026-02-06 10:33:00
FUNDAMENTAL
OVERVIEW
Oil prices are consolidating
between key levels as traders await new developments from the US-Iran
negotiations. On Wednesday, prices surged after reports suggested that US-Iran
talks scheduled for today were called off. The gains were eventually erased
after Iran’s foreign minister said the talks were still on.
Given the low probabilities
of a quick agreement between US and Iran, we might continue to see oil prices
bid into the weekends as the risk of a military escalation remains high.
On the macro side, OPEC+ held output steady as expected over the weekend. This continues
to support the market amid improving demand. In fact, unless we get more output
hikes or the market starts to bet on Fed’s rate hikes, the outlook for oil
prices should remain skewed to the upside.
CRUDE OIL
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
Crude oil futures – daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil is consolidating between the 66.44 and 62.37 levels as negotiations
between US and Iran continue. There’s not much we can glean from this timeframe,
so we need to zoom in to see some more details.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
Crude oil futures – 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a trendline defining the bullish momentum. The buyers will
likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep
pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break
lower to pile in for a drop into the 58.80 support next.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
Crude oil futures – 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the choppy price action with no clear levels where to lean on.
From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to
reward setup around the trendline to position for a rally into new highs, while
the sellers will need a break lower to open the door for new lows. The red
lines define the average daily range for today.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Today we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer
Sentiment data.
