RBC: Gold rally has ‘room to run’; sees potential for $7,100

Gold prices have shattered the $5,000/oz barrier, and according to the latest analysis from RBC Capital Markets, the momentum behind the precious metal shows no signs of exhaustion.

Gold is up $66 today to $5080 as it consolidates above the big figure.

While the bank’s high-scenario forecast had anticipated gold reaching the $5,200 region later in Q4, the “frenetic nature of uncertainty” combined with broad dollar weakness has accelerated the timeline significantly.

Key highlights from the note:

• The speed of the rally has surpassed RBC’s expectations. Gold has already set 8 new all-time highs in January 2026 alone (compared to 51 total in the previous year).

• The macro backdrop remains heavily gold-positive. RBC cites trade tensions, political/geopolitical instability, and concerns over Fed independence as primary catalysts. Crucially, they see no drop-off in demand from central banks or investors, with ETP (Exchange Traded Product) holdings rising alongside price.

• Using historical rallies (’76, ’07, ’15) as a proxy, the current upswing (approx. 844 days) is not an outlier. Historical averages suggest this rally could extend into September or December of this year.

• If 2026 mimics the percentage gains seen in 2025 (~65%), RBC notes that an extrapolation of that trend would put gold as high as $7,100/oz by year-end.

“Many of the same underpinnings are there… and importantly, we still do not get a sense of exhaustion in terms of accumulation from investors or from the official sector (i.e., central banks),” writes RBC.

RBC concludes that while limits exist for other asset classes, gold’s unique nature means current valuations aren’t hitting a hard ceiling. With the correlation between ETP holdings and price re-coupling, the bank sees ample upside risk even to their own bullish scenarios.