2026-01-12 19:21:00
The EURUSD ended last week leaning against an important swing area between 1.16125 and 1.1615, closing Friday near 1.1633, just above that support zone. That close left the pair sitting in a technically sensitive area — not broken lower, but not yet strong enough to confirm a sustained upside breakout either.
In early Asia-Pacific trading, sellers tried to push the pair lower once again, driving the price down to 1.1621. That level attracted buyers almost immediately, reinforcing the idea that the 1.1612–1.1620 region remains a meaningful support zone. From that base, the pair began to rotate higher, gaining upside momentum through the European morning.
The rally carried EURUSD above both the 100-day moving average (1.16637) and the falling 100-hour moving average (1.16686) — two important technical hurdles that had been capping rallies in recent sessions. Once those levels gave way, momentum buyers stepped in, pushing price steadily higher until it came within just a few pips of the falling 200-hour moving average at 1.16974 — a level that continues to define the upper boundary of the short-term range.
However, the upside stalled just ahead of that resistance. As U.S. equities recovered, the U.S. dollar strengthened, triggering a pullback in EURUSD. That pullback has brought the pair back toward its breakout zone, with price now rotating lower toward the cluster of support formed by the 100-hour and 100-day moving averages.
During the U.S. session, the pair dipped to 1.16645, just a few points above the 100-day moving average, highlighting how important that level has become. This moving average is now the line in the sand for short-term bulls.
What comes next?
If buyers are going to maintain control, EURUSD must hold above the 100-day moving average and then push back above the 100-hour moving average at 1.16686. A sustained move back above that level would tilt momentum back in favor of the upside and open the door for a retest of 1.1681 — a key swing area dating back to December and a ceiling during Thursday’s trade last week.
A break above 1.1681 would refocus attention on the 200-hour moving average at 1.16974, which remains the primary upside target and the final technical barrier before a larger breakout.
For now, EURUSD remains in a two-sided battle, with the 100-day moving average acting as key support and the 200-hour moving average serving as the dominant resistance. The next directional move will be defined by which of those levels gives way first.
