2026-01-08 07:37:00
Today, I’m taking a fresh look at Bitcoin futures as we move deeper into the start of year 2026.
After two weeks where bulls briefly reclaimed control and enjoyed what I would call their moment of fame, the technical picture has shifted again. Bears are back in control, and the structure that is developing deserves close attention, especially for traders and investors who were positioning for a clean continuation toward the $100K handle. Risk on or risk off moods? Gold was decining in the past couple of days, including today when we also had a successful trade idea on our Telegram Channel (hop on over, it’s free).
The Technical Structure: Regression Channel and Bear Flag Risk
On the chart in my bitcoin futures technical analysis video above , I am using a regression channel with two standard deviations, which helps encapsulate the dominant move and highlight where price is stretching or reverting. Bitcoin has now made another touch near the upper boundary of this channel. Importantly, the channel itself is slightly sloping upward, which often creates a deceptive sense of bullish continuation.
In reality, this combination frequently resolves as a bear flag. The logic is simple: price consolidates or drifts modestly higher after a strong decline, then breaks lower once buyers fail to regain real control. If Bitcoin revisits this upper channel area again, perhaps after a modest retracement, and then rolls over, it increases the probability of a continuation move lower. In that scenario, a break below the November 21 low becomes a realistic risk rather than a tail event.
Pitchfork Breakdown Adds Confluence to Bitcoin Bears Today
Adding to the bearish case, the pitchfork structure that previously guided price higher has already been broken to the downside. Whether you draw it conservatively or more aggressively, the message remains consistent: the market is no longer respecting that bullish framework. When multiple technical tools point in the same direction, it strengthens the signal and reduces the odds that this is just noise.
Bitcoin Trading Volume Today Confirms Participation, Not Apathy
One detail I want to stress is volume. The recent downside has not occurred on thin or holiday-style participation. We are seeing healthy, elevated volume, including activity above the EMA and near what looks like exhaustion selling zones. This tells me the move lower is supported by conviction, not just a lack of buyers.
Scenarios to Watch Going Forward for Bitcoin Futures
In the near term, a relief rally is still possible. Price could drift toward the midline of the regression channel, potentially retesting the broken pitchfork area around $92,300, depending on timing. That would not invalidate the bearish structure by itself.
For bulls to genuinely regain control, the market needs more than a bounce. I am watching a gently rising trend line defined by multiple clear touch points. Only if we see two consecutive candles closing above that line, currently around $96,100, would it suggest that bulls are meaningfully back in the game.
On the downside, failure to reclaim those levels keeps the door open to a deeper move, potentially toward the $82,250 area, where the next major decision point would emerge.
Bitcoin Market is Dynamic, and You Should Be, Too
Markets are dynamic, not ideological. I previously noted that a push toward $100K was possible if bullish conditions persisted and indeed buyers enjoyed that Long, but since yesterday, price is shifting to a different story. A marginal new high was rejected, and sellers stepped back in. The key now is staying agile, reading the message of price and volume, and avoiding stubborn bias.
As always, this is a scenario-based technical perspective, not a prediction or financial advice. We will continue to update the outlook as the structure evolves. For deeper follow-ups and updated levels, stay tuned to InvestingLive.
A Last Word about Bitcoin Dominance (…and what is that, anyway?)
Based on a separate analysis I reviewed and my own interpretation which could of course be wrong, Bitcoin dominance looks like it may be setting up for a move higher, and with Bitcoin price already slipping since yesterday, the more relevant scenario to consider is a risk-off rotation inside crypto. When dominance rises while price weakens, it often means capital is leaving altcoins faster than it is leaving Bitcoin, a classic defensive shift rather than outright panic.
For traders, the guidance here is not to predict but to observe: watch whether altcoins continue to underperform Bitcoin on relative charts, monitor if Bitcoin starts stabilizing while dominance keeps climbing, and pay attention to whether speculative narratives cool off. From an educational perspective, this environment tends to reward patience, reduced beta, and cleaner positioning, with Bitcoin acting as the relative safe haven inside crypto until risk appetite improves again.
