2026-01-02 08:50:00
The final estimate is little changed from the preliminary reading as France’s manufacturing sector saw a modest jump in activity to round off the 2025 year. A strong rise in new export orders was the key reason in underpinning sentiment while employment conditions also returned to growth on the month. Meanwhile, output volumes also came
close to stabilising after November’s sharp and accelerated contraction. HCOB notes that:
“2025 closes on a surprisingly upbeat note. Business conditions in France’s manufacturing sector improved in December,
with the PMI climbing back above the growth threshold to reach its highest level in three-and-a-half years. While this should
not obscure the structural challenges of recent years, it is nonetheless a step in the right direction. Looking ahead, the sector
could benefit from large-scale orders in defence and aerospace, particularly from abroad, as export demand has already
shown greater resilience than domestic orders in recent months. Still, persistent political instability and the resulting
uncertainty among businesses and households remain key headwinds for future prospects.
“After several months of contraction, production at French manufacturing plants broadly stabilised in December. Robust
export orders were a key support, even as pressure on supply chains and cautious customer behaviour continue to limit
output. Companies have also been meeting orders by drawing down inventories. Purchasing activity, which has been
declining since 2022, is now approaching stabilisation, potentially signalling that the sector may have reached its trough
heading into next year.
“The modest improvement in business conditions has prompted firms to raise prices again after three consecutive months of
cuts, likely aimed at stimulating sales. Input cost inflation remains subdued, providing some relief, but margin pressures will
persist if demand fails to strengthen further.”
