Gold’s December glow: Seasonal strength and perhaps one final push going into 2026

Gold is taking a bit of a breather today but so far in December trading, it is very much sticking to the seasonal script from the past few years. Prior to December last year, gold has been on a hot streak in the final month of recent years as the precious metal posted gains in the December months all through 2017 to 2023. 🔥

On more than one occasion in recent years, it would seem that traders are choosing to frontrun the gains from January – which historically is the best performing month for gold. Here’s a look at the seasonal heatmap:

In continuing its unrelenting streak since last year, gold has already traded up in ten out of the last eleven months coming into December. And so far this month, the precious metal is up another 2.7% currently.

A weaker dollar and a Fed rate cut helped to play into the hands of gold, but also as some investors are seeking shelter amid concerns on the AI trade. A selloff in Japanese bonds and the yen currency isn’t helping to offer much alternatives for safety relief, so that is also one factor that is helping to keep the precious metal underpinned.

But from a seasonal perspective, it appears that we’re starting to see normal service resume again for gold in December. But does that mean traders are once again pushing the agenda early and skipping out on January?

Well, I wouldn’t say so exactly. A lot will come down to how the technical picture shapes up in the weeks ahead.

The run up in gold this month comes after we see price action broke the flag pattern from October to November trading. And buyers are staying steadfast in their conviction for gold to keep moving higher in the early stages of 2026 at least. That as the dollar outlook continues to remain soft and market players are still liking the kind of hedge that gold provides as a whole.

Against the backdrop of major central banks still perhaps needing to cut rates, slowing economies, and political as well as geopolitical uncertainty, there is still scope for gold to squeeze in one last push looking to next year. But again, it must also come with help from the technical side.

As seen above, the push higher this month is still falling short of testing the October highs around $4,375-80. There is work to be done on the part of buyers to get there. And unless we do catch a break above that, only then can we really say that gold can look to secure one final hurrah before potentially needing to correct back.

The final point is one that might become more of a narrative check as we get closer to 2H 2026. That as major central banks will slowly start to pivot from rate cuts and start talking about rate hikes once again down the road.