Robinhood (HOOD) looks better placed than Coinbase (COIN) for prediction-market upside, Mizuho says

Robinhood (HOOD) could see more revenue upside from prediction markets than Coinbase (COIN) as users deploy fresh cash rather than sell existing holdings, according to a survey by Japanese investment bank Mizuho (MFG).

“We expect a bigger percentage revenue benefit to HOOD vs. COIN given that the survey showed that users on that platform are more inclined to fund prediction markets portfolio with fresh money,” wrote analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins, in the Tuesday report.

Robinhood and Coinbase users are far more likely than other investors to trade prediction markets, with activity skewed to economic and political events, the analysts found. The bank raised its revenue forecasts for Robinhood but cut its Coinbase price target on concerns that prediction-market activity may cannibalize crypto trading.

Mizuho surveyed more than 230 Robinhood and Coinbase users and found they are about nine times more likely to participate in prediction markets than respondents who don’t use either app. Economic events (81%) and political events (49%) were the most popular themes among respondents, with sports (47%) close behind, the bank said.

How users plan to fund those trades is where the two platforms diverge, according to the report. About 50% of Robinhood respondents said they expect to use fresh money to trade prediction markets, while selling traditional portfolios or crypto ranked much lower (12% and 10%, respectively).

Coinbase users, by contrast, most often cited selling crypto (37%) and adding new money (37%) as their primary sources of funds, raising what the analysts described as a risk that prediction markets could cannibalize existing crypto trading revenue.

That funding mix leads to see a bigger medium-term revenue boost for Robinhood than for Coinbase, the analysts said, even though COIN users expect to allocate a slightly higher share of their portfolio to prediction markets in about a year (15% vs. 13% for HOOD).

With Robinhood’s prediction-market business on track for about a $300 million fourth-quarter run rate and some 2.5 billion contracts in October, Mizuho said it is raising its 2026–2027 revenue estimates for the company by 6%–7%. The bank kept its outperform rating on the shares and its $172 price target.

Coinbase is expected to launch a prediction-market product on Wednesday, which Mizuho views as a positive step but not yet enough to change its numbers.

The bank said it has not incorporated any prediction-market upside into its Coinbase model given uncertainty around the final product design and economics, and the potential for crypto selling to fund prediction trades. Mizuho also cited weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter trends and lower bitcoin BTC$87,018.43 prices as it cut its Coinbase price target to $280 from $320, and reiterated its neutral rating on the stock.

Robinhood was 2.6% higher in early trade, at $122.53. Coinbase was 2% higher, trading at $257.63.

Read more: Prediction Markets Are Quietly Turning Into a New Asset Class, Citizens Says