2025-12-16 13:08:00
It’s been a long wait for the return of US economic data but we are finally here with November non-farm payrolls and October retail sales due at the bottom of the hour. The jobs report is the most up-to-date and the most meaningful. I wonder if the Fed got a nod that it was going to be a poor reading and that tilted them towards cutting rates.
In any case, the consensus is +50K from +119K previously. The BLS noted that the standard errors in this report will be larger than normal because of missing data from the shutdown, so be prepared for anything. A good check will be on the unemployment rate, which is projected to stay flat at 4.4%.
Retail sales are expected up 0.1% in October with the control group up 0.4%. In earnings season, companies were mostly upbeat on the consumer but there were certainly indications of K-shaped spending, with McDonald’s and Walmart highlighting the struggles of low-income consumers.
For more, see the investingLive economic calendar.
