2025-12-08 08:29:00
A busy week lies ahead with several key economic events on the calendar, but Monday begins quietly, with no significant releases.
On Tuesday, the main focus will be the RBA’s monetary policy announcement and the ADP employment change and JOLTS job openings data in the U.S.
BoJ Governor Ueda will take part in a moderated discussion on inflation, interest rates, financial stability and the yen’s external value at the Financial Times Global Boardroom Conference in London.
Wednesday will bring the BoC’s monetary policy announcement, followed by the highly anticipated FOMC meeting in the U.S.
On Thursday, Australia will release its employment change and unemployment rate, Switzerland will announce its SNB monetary policy decision, and the U.S. will publish its weekly unemployment claims.
Closing the week on Friday, the U.K. will release its GDP m/m figures.
At this week’s meeting, the RBA is expected to keep rates unchanged. Recent data suggests the economy is beginning to gain momentum, as reflected in the Q3 National Accounts.
While the monthly CPI came in above expectations, Westpac analysts note that the strongest price increases were concentrated in sectors heavily influenced by government policy rather than market forces, highlighting ongoing structural drivers of inflation.
For now, the Bank will continue monitoring incoming data before determining the next steps for monetary policy. Expectations are that inflationary pressures will moderate next year, opening the door for the RBA to deliver two 25 bps rate cuts.
This week brings the JOLTS data for both September and October, which should shed more light on the softening U.S. labor market. The consensus for the October release is 7.14M job openings.
Markets will be focused on key indicators such as the job-openings-to-unemployment ratio and the quit rate. Wells Fargo analysts note that the openings-to-unemployed ratio fell below 1.0 in August, and a further decline would signal a growing imbalance between labor demand and supply.
Meanwhile, the quit rate has held steady at 1.9% throughout the year, but a meaningful drop would suggest workers are becoming more cautious in response to a weakening labor environment.
At this week’s meeting, the BoC is expected to keep rates on hold after delivering two consecutive cuts in September and October. Since then, Canadian economic data has pointed to a recovery.
GDP has exceeded expectations, and the labor market has stabilized, with employment rising by 54,000 in November and the unemployment rate falling from 7.1% to 6.5%. The recent rate cuts have also supported household spending.
Inflation, however, remains above the Bank’s 2% target, and there could be some upward pressure next year due to both consumer and government spending. Even so, markets do not expect further rate cuts in 2026.
At this week’s FOMC meeting, a 25 bps rate cut is likely, though given the recent divisions within the Fed, it could be a close call.
Inflation remains a concern in the U.S., particularly due to tariff-related price increases. However, signs of softening in the labor market tilt the odds toward a rate cut, an outlook echoed by several influential policymakers.
The Fed will also release its updated economic forecasts. Some analysts expect the projections to show just one additional rate cut in 2026, while market pricing currently anticipates two to three rate cuts next year.
Markets are also closely watching the possibility of a new Fed chair nomination in 2026. If the White House selects a widely expected candidate such as Kevin Hassett, investor focus could shift from worrying that the Fed is being too slow to cut rates to fearing that it might ease policy too aggressively. This would introduce an additional layer of uncertainty to early-year monetary policy expectations.
In Australia, the consensus for employment change is 20.3K, down from 42.2K previously, and the unemployment rate is expected to edge up from 4.3% to 4.4%.
Although October’s employment data exceeded expectations, Westpac analysts note that the three-month trend in job creation has slowed to roughly 1.5% annualized, which is about half a percentage point weaker than earlier in the year.
The Q3 Labour Account also highlights a shift beneath the surface: Industries that expanded rapidly during the care-sector hiring boom are now normalizing, while market-oriented sectors are gradually regaining momentum.
Labour demand strengthened while labour supply held steady, with the participation rate unchanged at 67.0%. The unemployment rate fell last month from 4.5% to 4.3%, but signs suggest it is still drifting gradually higher.
Much of the recent month-to-month volatility is coming from younger workers, whose unemployment rate has swung sharply and has tended to lead the gradual rise now becoming visible in the broader adult workforce.
For this week’s meeting, the SNB is expected to keep rates unchanged. Inflation in Switzerland has fallen more than expected, but for now it is unlikely that the Bank will respond by easing policy.
Inflation is expected to hover around zero for some time, and the SNB could cut rates by 25 bps to –0.25% in March next year, returning to negative interest rates as inflation dynamics become a growing concern. However, such a move would require a higher threshold and will come only if other options have been exhausted.
In the U.K. manufacturing output decreased in September on the heels of the major cyberattack that caused Jaguar Land Rover to halt production for several weeks. This has since been resolved and October GDP is expected to show a modest improvement of 0.1% compared to -0.1% the previous month.
