Goldman Sachs raises 2026 China growth outlook to 4.8% on export strength, policy support

Goldman Sachs has raised its growth outlook for China, citing resilient exports, easing U.S.–China trade tensions, and renewed policy momentum from Beijing’s latest five-year plan.

Hui Shan, Goldman’s chief China economist, said the bank now expects China’s real GDP to rise 4.8% in 2026 and 4.7% in 2027

• up from earlier forecasts of 4.3% and 4.0%

marking the firm’s largest upgrade since 2019.

The revision follows the late-October meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi, which de-escalated trade tensions and led to tariff reductions. Shan said the meeting signalled that China now wields meaningful leverage in trade talks, particularly through control of rare-earth exports, and that the U.S. may find it harder to impose further tariffs.

Goldman also cited the outcomes of China’s recent Fourth Plenum and its 15th Five-Year Plan, which emphasise technology self-reliance and industrial competitiveness. Policymakers aim to double down on high-tech manufacturing and innovation as drivers of growth, replacing reliance on property and infrastructure. While the strategy may boost exports and corporate profits quickly, Shan warned it may take longer to lift household consumption.

The bank sees the combination of stronger exports, technological upgrading, and easing geopolitical pressure as key to sustaining momentum. Goldman also noted that the rise of artificial intelligence could lift China’s long-term growth potential by as much as 8% over the next decade, helping offset demographic and structural headwinds.