2025-11-06 06:07:00
After the Tuesday drop, gold is seen picking itself back up again in the past few sessions as it nudges back to around $3,980-90 levels. That being said, the price momentum seems to be falling short of contesting the $4,000 mark. So, what gives?
Looking at the near-term chart, we can see that the key hourly moving averages are still being very much respected for now. Sellers are holding the line, quite literally, and that’s keeping any further rebound in gold in check for now.
Gold (XAU/USD) hourly chart
The confluence of the 100 (red line) and 200-hour (blue line) moving averages is seen around $3,989-94 and that is holding price action from extending higher for now. Keep below that and sellers will continue to hold near-term control but break above the key levels as well as the $4,000 mark, then buyers will seize back the near-term bias in their favour.
In the bigger picture, one key development to watch out for this week is the bond market. 10-year Treasury yields jumped up yesterday to a one-month high around 4.16% and that could yet keep the dollar in a better spot while also weighing on gold sentiment if yields continue to climb towards the 100-day moving average of 4.21%.
It is evidently clear that the bond market is starting to do its own thing now, with somewhat better US private economic data perhaps having the potential to influence the Fed to not cut rates in December. For the time being, traders are still pricing in ~61% odds of a 25 bps rate cut but it definitely doesn’t feel like a given.
So, any shifts to that pricing will also play a key role in impacting gold sentiment in the weeks ahead. That before we start to consider the more bullish seasonal period between December to January for the precious metal.
