2025-11-05 15:20:00
U.S. yields are pushing to new highs after another round of stronger-than-expected data. The ISM non-manufacturing index beat forecasts, reinforcing the upbeat tone set earlier by a solid ADP employment report. Together, the data painted a picture of continued economic resilience and triggered fresh selling in Treasuries.
The 10-year yield is now up 5.2 basis points at 4.143%, extending its rebound from the October 22 low of 3.936%—the lowest level since April. The year-to-date low remains at 3.860%, also set in April, leaving plenty of room before retesting those levels. From a technical perspective on the topside, the 100 day moving average of the 10 year yield is at 4.215% and represents the next key target for yield.
Rising yields have lifted the U.S. dollar, with USDJPY climbing to a new session high of 154.30. The pair is now approaching the swing-high zone between 154.44 and 154.48 seen over the past two sessions. A sustained break above that band would open the door toward 154.74, and potentially set the stage for a fresh leg of upside momentum if buyers can keep control.
Looking at the hourly chart below, sellers had their opportunity earlier today when the price dipped below the 200-hour moving average, but they couldn’t hold it there. The failure flipped momentum back to neutral, keeping the pair trading between the 100- and 200-hour moving averages.
During the early U.S. session, a stronger ADP report helped lift the price above the 100-hour MA (blue line on the chart below), and that upside accelerated further after the ISM data. Those moving averages now serve as risk-defining levels for buyers looking to build on the bullish momentum.
If the price cannot move back below those levels, the buyers are winning. The sellers are not.
