Historic knowledge means that bitcoin has probably put in its September 2025 low, round $107,000 on the primary of the month.
Wanting again to July 2024, a constant sample emerges the place bitcoin tends to type a backside for the month throughout the first 10 days of every month.
The notable exceptions have been February, June and August 2025, when the lows got here later within the month, however even then, the market skilled a correction inside these first 10 days earlier than resuming its broader development.
Speculatively, the explanation bitcoin usually places in its low throughout the first 10 days of the month might be tied to institutional portfolio rebalancing or the timing of key macroeconomic occasions that are likely to cluster early within the month.
“It’s price noting that a number of futures and choices markets expire on the ultimate day of the month or the primary day of the following, this could result in quick time period volatility and a subsequent lull in buying and selling exercise as merchants both rollover trades or reposition completely,” stated Oliver Knight, deputy managing editor, knowledge and tokens, at CoinDesk.
After all, previous efficiency shouldn’t be a assure of future outcomes, however as This fall approaches it’s price noting that this quarter has traditionally been bitcoin’s strongest, delivering a mean return of 85%. October specifically has been particularly favorable, with solely two shedding months since 2013.
