US EIA expects an oversupply, decrease oil costs, and falling US oil manufacturing – Commerzbank

The US Power Data Administration (EIA), in distinction, has considerably revised its estimate of the provision surplus on the oil market upwards and now expects inventories to construct by greater than 2 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter of 2025 and the primary quarter of 2026.

The EIA expects a decline of 130,000 barrels per day

“That is 800,000 barrels per day greater than it has beforehand forecast. For that reason, the value of Brent crude oil is predicted to fall to a median of $58 per barrel within the fourth quarter and to a median of $50 per barrel initially of 2026. The decrease oil value degree implies that US crude oil manufacturing is more likely to decline considerably subsequent 12 months.”

“The EIA expects a decline of 130,000 barrels per day on common for the 12 months and 400,000 barrels per day in comparison with the top of this 12 months. The document degree is now anticipated to be reached in December 2025 at 13.57 million barrels per day. Thereafter, manufacturing volumes are set to say no steadily.”