Oil costs continued to maneuver decrease yesterday, with the market centered on Friday’s Trump-Putin assembly. The end result may take away a number of the sanction danger hanging over the market. The drop in oil comes regardless of US shopper value index knowledge yesterday buttressing the view that the Federal Reserve will seemingly lower rates of interest at its September assembly, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
No modifications in OPEC’s month-to-month oil report
“In its month-to-month oil market report, OPEC made no modifications to its 2025 demand and non-OPEC+ provide numbers. The group did, nevertheless, make some revisions to its 2026 forecasts. OPEC elevated its oil demand development forecasts for 2026 by 100k b/d to 1.38m b/d, whereas non-OPEC+ provide development was lower by 100k b/d to 630k b/d. This leaves the market tighter than beforehand forecast. The discharge additionally reveals that OPEC elevated provide by 263k b/d month on month in July to 27.54m b/d. Saudi Arabia and the UAE drove many of the improve. The Worldwide Vitality Company (IEA) will launch its month-to-month oil market report later as we speak.”
“The Vitality Info Administration (EIA), in its newest Brief-Time period Vitality Outlook, barely elevated its US crude oil manufacturing estimate for 2025 from 13.37m b/d to 13.41m b/d. This leaves year-on-year provide development at 200k b/d. Nonetheless, the company now expects US oil manufacturing will fall in 2026 by 130k b/d YoY to 13.28m b/d. Draw back dangers to produce aren’t too stunning, given the numerous decline in US drilling exercise in latest months. For dry pure gasoline output, the EIA expects provide in 2025 to develop by 3.2 bcf/day to 106.4 bcf/day, whereas 2026 pure gasoline output is predicted to fall by 0.3 bcf/day YoY.”
“Lastly, American Petroleum Institute (API) stock numbers had been pretty impartial in a single day. US crude oil inventories elevated by 1.5m barrels over the past week. For refined merchandise, gasoline shares fell by 1.8m barrels, whereas distillate inventories elevated by 300k barrels. The extra broadly adopted EIA weekly stock report will likely be launched later as we speak.”
