Australian Greenback (AUD) is prone to consolidate in a spread of 0.6475/0.6535 towards US Greenback (USD). Within the longer run, downward momentum has constructed additional, however AUD could consolidate first earlier than trying to interrupt under 0.6455, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia be aware.
Downward momentum has constructed additional
24-HOUR VIEW: “Within the early Asian commerce yesterday, when AUD was at 0.6515, we held the view that ‘there’s a likelihood for it check 0.6480.’ Nonetheless, we identified that ‘based mostly on the present momentum, AUD is unlikely to have the ability to break under 0.8480.’ Although our directional name was appropriate, we didn’t count on AUD to drop sharply to 0.6455 after which rebounded. The rebound in oversold circumstances signifies AUD is unlikely to weaken additional. In the present day, AUD is extra prone to consolidate in a spread of 0.6475/0.6535.”
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Two days in the past (16 Jul, spot at 0.6520), we indicated that ‘there was a tentative buildup in momentum, and AUD is prone to edge decrease to 0.6480.’ We additionally indicated that ‘to keep up the momentum buildup, AUD should maintain under the ‘sturdy resistance’ stage, at present at 0.6575.’ Yesterday, in a shock transfer, AUD not solely broke under 0.6480, but additionally examined the following main help at 0.6455. Downward momentum has constructed additional, however given the oversold short-term circumstances, AUD could consolidate for a few days. General, so long as 0.6560 (‘sturdy resistance’ stage beforehand at 0.6575) will not be breached, there’s potential for AUD to interrupt under 0.6455. Wanting forward, the following stage to observe under 0.6455 is 0.6420.”
