Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin AVIV Ratio stays beneath historic peak ranges, indicating a possible climb above $330,000 earlier than a cycle prime is confirmed.
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Over-the-counter Bitcoin holdings are down considerably in 2025, pointing to strategic accumulation by Technique, Metaplanet, BlackRock and others.
Bitcoin (BTC) value has had a rocky month, however latest evaluation signifies that BTC may surge one other 300% this cycle. Technical analyst Gert van Lagen’s X put up highlights the AVIV Ratio, a metric that compares Bitcoin’s lively capitalization (cash in movement) to its complete invested capitalization (realized capital, excluding miner rewards).
Traditionally, when the AVIV Ratio crosses its +3σ imply deviation, it has signaled a cycle prime. For instance, BTC was $1,200 in 2013, close to $20,000 in 2017, and round $69,000 in 2021. At present, the AVIV Ratio’s degree stays beneath these previous peaks, suggesting Bitcoin may climb to at the very least $330,000 this cycle, earlier than the +3σ imply deviation situation is met.
The AVIV Ratio gives a singular lens on market dynamics, reflecting investor exercise versus locked-in worth. A spike signifies heightened buying and selling or profit-taking, usually previous main value actions. Van Lagen’s evaluation ties this to Bitcoin’s cyclical nature, the place post-ATH rallies have traditionally delivered important positive aspects. Nevertheless, its predictive accuracy lacks validation in various market circumstances, and volatility stays a wildcard.
Including to the narrative, knowledge from CryptoQuant reveals a notable shift: Bitcoin holdings on over-the-counter (OTC) desks have dropped from 166,500 to 137,400 in 2025. This decline suggests giant traders are transferring holdings off exchanges, probably signaling diminished promoting stress or a shift towards long-term storage.
The declining balances at OTC desks this 12 months stem from strategic accumulation by institutional traders, led by Technique’s aggressive shopping for, and new entrants like Metaplanet, which has amassed 10,000 BTC, alongside strong internet inflows into the spot Bitcoin ETFs, which complete $128.18 billion in internet worth. BlackRock’s crypto portfolio additionally holds greater than $70 billion in BTC, which sums up the present intent of main traders available in the market.
📊MARKET UPDATE: #BlackRock added one other $250 million in #Bitcoin on June 17 — marking six straight days of shopping for, now totaling $1.4 billion.
Its present $BTC holding is valued at over $70 billion. 🤯
(h/t: @arkham) pic.twitter.com/JmjNAu2kDY
— Cointelegraph Markets & Analysis (@CointelegraphMT) June 18, 2025
Associated: 25% Bitcoin value rally set to observe in the present day’s correction if historical past repeats
Energy regulation places Bitcoin value goal between $220,000 and $330,000
Just like Van Lagen’s $330,000 value goal, one other research by Bitcoin researcher Sminston With outlined a comparable cycle prime for BTC. With’s evaluation leverages a 365-day easy transferring common (SMA) aligned with an influence regulation mannequin (R²=0.96), projecting Bitcoin’s value may attain $220,000 to $330,000 on this cycle.
At present buying and selling round $104,000, BTC would want a 100% to 200% surge to hit these ranges, per historic peaks the place costs doubled or tripled above the facility regulation trendline.
With’s mannequin challenges assumptions of diminishing volatility, displaying Bitcoin’s value cycles retain important swings, as evidenced by regular deviations from the trendline. Whereas optimistic, the researcher cautions that the evaluation attracts from solely 4 market cycles, urging skepticism.
Likewise, Cointelegraph reported {that a} listing of 30 bull market peak indicators from CoinGlass suggests Bitcoin may climb to $230,000, with none signaling a cycle prime regardless of BTC reaching $112,000. Metrics like Pi Cycle Prime and MVRV present the bull market has room to run, supporting With’s optimistic outlook.
Associated: Bitcoin beneath $100K now ‘much less probably’ as BTC value eyes liquidity at $106K
This text doesn’t include funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer entails danger, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a call.
