US Greenback (USD) stays a contact firmer amid geopolitical escalation between Israel and Iran. DXY was final at 97.93 ranges, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong word.
Geopolitical dangers might maintain danger sentiment fragile
“This morning, Bloomberg headlines acknowledged that Iran’s new Israel strike was ‘extra crushing’ than earlier than. Whereas USD rebounded final Friday, the constrained value motion suggests it has but to totally reclaim its secure haven standing. Geopolitical dangers—particularly renewed tensions between Israel and Iran—might maintain danger sentiment fragile. As such, high-beta FX resembling AUD and NZD might commerce on the again foot if tensions proceed to rise.”
“That mentioned, de-escalation would probably weigh on the greenback and convey assist again to danger proxies. Focus this week is on FOMC (Thursday 2am SGT). Establishment probably, however all eyes are on the dot plot and the press convention. Markets search for 2 cuts by year-end. If the Fed alerts only one reduce (final dot plot seems for two reduce) or pushes again easing expectations, then USD may get one other carry, however something much less hawkish/extra dovish may set off USD promoting.”
“Each day momentum is delicate bearish bias whereas RSI exhibits indicators of rising from close to oversold circumstances. Resistance at 99.20 (21 DMA), 99.70 ranges (50 DMA). Help at 97.60 (current low). Day forward convey empire manufacturing information.”
