Happily, the very public fallout between President Trump and Elon Musk has not had broader market implications. Regardless of the travails for Tesla, the broader S&P 500 was solely off 0.5% yesterday and futures now name the S&P modestly larger as we speak. Notably, it has been a quiet week for the US Treasury market, the place yields are broadly unchanged. The subject of how the US funds its rising fiscal deficit could also be again subsequent week, nevertheless, once we see three and 10-year auctions, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
Gentle jobs quantity can push DXY by 98.00
“The primary occasion as we speak is the 1430CET launch of the Might NFP jobs report. Jobs progress has been holding up fairly nicely to date this yr, however traders are on alert for any indicators that April tariff uncertainty is prompting layoffs. And the Fed has mentioned it stands able to act ought to the roles market deteriorate. On the again of sentimental ISM enterprise surveys this week, the ‘whisper’ quantity for as we speak’s jobs quantity has fallen from +140k to +110k. Official consensus appears someplace close to +125k.”
“For reference, the market costs 50bp of Fed cuts this yr, beginning in September. Any mushy determine will little question carry broader calls from politicians for a direct reduce and get the market excited about a transfer from the Fed on the 30 July assembly – once we’ll know whether or not ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs have been reimposed.”
“DXY requires fairly a mushy jobs quantity to interrupt 98.00, with backup assist round 97.20. We suspect any DXY spike on a greater quantity exhausts within the 99.30/50 space because the bearish conviction on the greenback holds sway.”
