The euro has held up higher than most G10 currencies, helped by constructive headlines about EU-US commerce negotiations, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
1.130 is probably going an anchor, with upside dangers for EUR/USD
“On the info entrance, France posted a destructive month-on-month CPI print for Might, which provides to the narrative of an preliminary deflationary influence from tariffs on the EU. If Friday’s information from different member states confirms this development, EUR swaps may begin to value in a better likelihood of ECB charges dipping under 1.75%. Right this moment, the ECB publishes its CPI expectation surveys for April.”
“EUR/USD has discovered help round 1.130 on a number of events over the previous six weeks. If US information and Trump proceed to ship constructive surprises this week, a decisive break decrease is feasible. Nonetheless, we doubt markets are prepared to cost out the USD danger premium, particularly with deficit issues just lately coming to the fore.”
“For now, we see 1.130 as a probable anchor, with upside dangers for EUR/USD nonetheless dominant within the weeks forward.”
