investingLive Americas market news wrap: Market loses faith that an Iran solution is near

Markets:

• WTI crude oil up $2.23 to $97.96
• Gold down $53 to $5025
• US 10-year yields flat at 4.28%
• S&P 500 down 48 points to 6625
• Bitcoin up 1.3%
• USD leads, NZD lags

There was some sense of the war doves throwing in the towel today, at least in the short term. News that the US was sending over a Marine Expeditionary Unit that won’t arrive for 12-16 days stretches the timeline to the end of the month and the full 4-5 weeks Trump touted, at minimum.

There is a sense that Iran isn’t ready to end the war even if Trump wants to and that means there could be a battle to control the Strait of Hormuz or persistent naval escorts. If that’s where this is headed that it’s going to be a long spring and oil prices will stay high.

We saw that today with crude falling to $92 in Asian but rising all the way to $99.32 and finishing near the highs of the day. At the same time, US equities started with a 50 point gain that turned into a 45 point loss as the de-risking continues.

The FX market had been taking the fighting in stride but is increasingly shifting into dollars. That’s pushed the euro to the lowest since July after a break of 1.1500 and a continued run lower.

The Australian dollar had been immune to the war trade up until now but it cracked on Friday and fell 83 pips to 0.6995.

The Canadian dollar stands to benefit from the higher oil prices but fresh worries about the domestic economy hit after a poor jobs report — the second one in a row and the worst headline since 2022. So even with oil up $40 in a month, USD/CAD is flat at 1.3729.

Much of the final hours of trading was speculation about what could happen over the weekend. There is a huge range of possibilities from peace to sunken US ships and that will ensure another intense opening on Sunday night. Until then, have a nice weekend.