2026-03-13 18:31:00
The latest NBC poll shows Trump’s approval among registered voters down 3 points to 44% from 47% in March 2025, with disapproval climbing to 54%. The DDHQ polling average paints a similar picture at 43.1/54.4.
What matters for markets here is the midterm setup. Trump himself is flagging the risk, noting the historical pattern of the White House party getting punished in midterms. If Republicans lose ground in Congress, that reshapes the legislative landscape for tax policy, tariffs, and deregulation — all of which are priced into current equity valuations to some degree.
The issue-by-issue numbers are telling: border security polls at 53% approval, but immigration broadly sits at just 44% and Iran policy at 41%. The Epstein file handling and immigration backlash are creating drag.
The broader read is that political capital is eroding, and that has implications for how much of the pro-growth agenda can actually get pushed through before November, especially with Iran and Epstein dominating the agenda.
The next big question is whether he starts to face some internal pressure to end the war quickly. Republicans surely already conceed the House will be lost but the Senate is increasingly in play as a Middle East war will disillusion part of his voting coalition.
Polymarket now Republicans at 53% to hold the Senate, with Democrats at 48%. It’s a very tough map for Democrats but aside from Maine and North Carolina, the pickings are slim. If Trump loses control of the Senate agenda, it will be a miserable final two years in office and would prevent any of his picks for the Supreme Court, should a vacancy become available. It would also mean relentless investigations of his administration and cabinet.
That kind of thing could be a powerful motivation to get oil prices back down into the $60s as soon as possible. But does Iran want to negotiate?
