Goldman Sachs February CPI preview signals gradual inflation slowdown, not everyone agrees

Goldman Sachs expects February CPI to show easing core inflation as autos and shelter moderate.

Data due at 0830 US Eastern time on Wednesday, March 11, 2026.

Summary:

• Goldman Sachs expects February core CPI to rise 0.17% m/m, below the 0.2% consensus.

• The forecast implies 2.42% year-on-year core inflation, versus 2.5% consensus.

• Headline CPI is projected to rise 0.18% m/m, also below expectations.

• Softer used car prices and auto insurance are expected to help ease inflation pressures.

• Shelter inflation is forecast to moderate further, while tariffs could push some categories higher.

Goldman Sachs expects U.S. inflation to show signs of cooling in February, with softer price pressures in several key categories likely to keep the overall CPI reading slightly below market expectations.

In a preview of the upcoming inflation report, the bank forecasts core CPI rising 0.17% month-on-month, compared with the 0.2% consensus estimate. On an annual basis, that would place core inflation at roughly 2.42% year-over-year, also below the 2.5% consensus forecast.

Headline CPI is expected to increase 0.18% on the month, reflecting modest rises in food and energy prices.

Goldman Sachs said several category-level trends should contribute to the softer reading. The bank expects auto-related inflation to cool, with used car prices forecast to decline 0.5% and car insurance falling 0.3%.

Airfares are also expected to stabilise following a strong gain earlier in the year. Goldman projects airfare prices to remain unchanged in February after a 6.5% increase in January, citing signals from alternative pricing data.

Another key area to watch is shelter inflation, which has been one of the largest contributors to U.S. price pressures in recent years. Goldman expects moderation in both rent and owners’ equivalent rent, forecasting monthly increases of roughly 0.22% for each component, suggesting a continued slowdown in underlying housing inflation.

However, the bank notes that trade policy could begin to introduce new inflation pressures. Tariffs are expected to exert modest upward pressure on certain goods categories, particularly sectors such as recreation that are more exposed to import costs. Goldman estimates tariffs could add roughly 0.05 percentage points to the inflation reading.

The bank also said its CPI forecast is broadly consistent with a 0.24% monthly increase in core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s preferred price measure.

The February CPI report will be closely watched by markets as investors assess the trajectory of U.S. inflation and the likely path for Federal Reserve policy. Evidence that inflation is cooling could reinforce expectations that the Fed will maintain a cautious approach to further policy tightening.

—

Other forecasts, summarized by Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos: