Bitcoin (BTC) price by short-termism as rally fades ahead of U.S. payrolls report: Crypto Daybook Americas
By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Cryptocurrency prices are falling as some holders look to cash in on the mid-week bounce to $74,000 and others prefer less risky assets as the war in the Middle East escalates.
Bitcoin has lost 3.7% in the past 24 hours, holding just above $70,000, while the wider CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index dropped 3.5% as momentum from the rally earlier in the week cools. Bitcoin cleared $74,000 on Wednesday and is still up more than 6% over five days.
Illia Otychenko, lead analyst at CEX.IO, said the decline reflects selling pressure from short-term traders who bought the recovery. “Despite the recent recovery, there is still limited conviction that the rally will continue,” Otychenko told CoinDesk.
Meanwhile, derivatives markets show growing pessimism. Funding rates remain deeply negative, meaning traders are paying to hold onto short positions.
But underlying demand hasn’t gone anywhere. Otychenko noted that stablecoin movements into exchanges recently reached their highest levels in 2026 while spot bitcoin ETF flows turned positive.
“This creates a clear conflict in the market. Institutional spot buyers are accumulating Bitcoin, while derivatives traders are increasing short positions,” he added. “Historically, when spot accumulation coincides with negative funding, it often ends in a short squeeze, where short sellers are forced to close positions and the price moves higher. However, that outcome is not guaranteed.”
Geopolitics remains a factor. Brent crude is up more than 22% in the past week after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and retaliatory attacks disrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint carrying roughly 20% of global supply.
“Hormuz tanker traffic is still down 92%, Goldman is warning oil could hit $100, and the curve is flattening again as the short end reprices inflation risk with the 2Y backing up to 3.51%,” said Bryan Tan, a trader at Wintermute in a note.
The surge in energy prices is feeding inflation concerns, prompting traders to reconsider interest-rate cut expectations. Bond markets are already reflecting that shift, with U.S. Treasury yields rising as investors price in the risk that inflation will remain elevated.
And don’t forget, there’s also the U.S. jobs report later today, which will also feed into the Fed’s interest-rate decisions. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Crypto
- Macro
- March 6, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. nonfarm payrolls for February Est. 59K (Prev. 130K)
- March 6, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. unemployment rate for February Est 4.3% (Prev. 4.3%)
- March 6, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. average hourly earnings MoM for February Est. 0.3% (Prev. 0.4%)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- March 6: Metalpha (MATH), pre-market
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Governance votes & calls
- No major governance votes & calls.
- Unlocks
- March 6: Hyperliquid (HYPE) to unlock 2.72% of its circulating supply worth around $288.77 million.
- Token Launches
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
Market Movements
- BTC is down 1.15% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $70,398.30 (24hrs: -2.89%)
- ETH is down 1.58% at $2,055.24 (24hrs: -3.01%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 1.22% at 2,008.56 (24hrs: -3.52%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 8 bps at 2.83%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.011% (-1.2209% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 99.23
- Gold futures are up 0.69% at $5,100.10
- Silver futures are up 1.64% at $83.03
- Nikkei 225 closed up 0.62% at 55,620.84
- Hang Seng closed up 1.72% at 25,757.29
- FTSE 100 is unchanged at 10,415.70
- Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 5,760.30
- DJIA closed on Thursday down 1.61% at 47,954.74
- S&P 500 closed down 0.56% at 6,830.71
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.26% at 22,748.99
- S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.98% at 33,610.00
- S&P 40 Latin America closed down 3.12% at 7,318.90
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 7 bps at 4.15%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,804.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 24,905.25
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are unchanged at 47,804.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 59.47% (-0.02%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02917 (-0.24%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,026 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $30.66
- Total fees: 2.75 BTC / $198,402
- CME Futures Open Interest: 104,755 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 13.8 oz.
- BTC vs gold market cap: 4.71%
Technical Analysis
- The ratio of altcoins (excluding top 10) to bitcoin is looking likely to close above the 50-week exponential moving average, implying no clear breakout for altcoinss relative to BTC.
- With no clear RSI divergences it is unlikely we will see a sustained rally from the broader altcoin universe.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $205.71 (–1.54%), –0.40% at $204.89 in pre-market
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $22.73 (–6.61%), –0.70% at $22.57
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.77 (–5.60%), –0.91% at $8.69
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $15.60 (–5.63%), –0.71% at $15.49
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.00 (+1.01%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.95 (–6.66%), –0.50% at $9.90
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $11.18 (–8.06%)
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $39.25 (–4.73%)
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $105.74 (+0.45%), –0.43% at $105.29
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $35.02 (–4.99%), unchanged at $35.00
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $139.81 (–4.53%), –0.30% at $139.39
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $9.25 (–3.85%)
- Sharplink (SBET): closed at $7.93 (–2.46%), –1.01% at $7.85
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.96 (–10.93%)
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.13 (–7.38%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$227.9 million
- Cumulative net flows: $55.7 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.29 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$90.9 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.74 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 5.68 million
Source: Farside Investors
