2026-03-05 11:57:00
The consensus is for a softer reading in the headline non-farm payrolls figure, following the strong showing in January. The first month of the year typically has seasonal factors imbued and this time, we are expected to see job gains of 59k.
One known downside factor is the United Nurses Associations of California/Union of Health Care
Professionals (UNAC/UHCP) strikes, which will reflect around 31k striking workers over the payrolls
reference period. The health physicians on strike will be absent from the payrolls figure having not worked through 26 January to 23 February. Of note, this will be the largest strike activity impact on the labour market report since October 2024 (the Boeing worker strike).
As such, just keep in mind to factor in that number as that will eventually return in the March payrolls figure.
Besides that, poorer weather conditions could have also been a drag on the reporting figures for February. Bad weather due to winter storms in late January could have adversely impacted the collection of the household survey. So, that’s something to take note of amid concerns of data quality issues. Although, I would argue markets will still take the numbers at face value for the most part.
As for the unemployment rate, that is expected to keep steady at 4.3% again. The January figure was 4.28% unrounded, which surprised to the positive side. That being said, analysts are flagging potential risks of a slight uptick to 4.4% on the month.
Of note, the likes of BofA, Wells Fargo, and TD Securities all estimate the jobless rate at 4.3% but highlight risks of it coming in at 4.4%. Meanwhile, JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs both anticipate the unemployment rate to tick a little higher to 4.4% as their baseline estimate.
You can find the major analyst estimates as per Bloomberg’s survey below (h/t @ MNI). I’ll be back with more detailed previews tomorrow.
