What are the central bankers talking about as war rages

Bank of Canada — Kozicki

Key Messages

Policy Bias:

Hawkish bias — willingness to prioritize inflation control even if growth softens.

European Central Bank (ECB)

Kocher

Key Messages

Policy Bias:

Neutral / two-sided optionality

Wunsch

Key Messages

• Initial inclination is to look through Middle East developments.

• However, persistent higher oil prices would force reassessment.

Policy Bias:

Conditionally hawkish

Makhlouf

Key Messages

Policy Bias:

Neutral / cautious

Bank of England — Taylor (Dove)

Key Messages

• Must watch Middle East developments closely.

• Energy shocks influence inflation faster than central banks can react.

• Confident disinflation process remains intact.

• Risk of deficient demand emerging.

• Monetary restrictiveness has increased over the past year.

• US tariffs expected to be disinflationary for the UK.

Policy Bias:

Dovish tilt

• Concern about demand weakness.

• Confidence inflation is easing.

• Suggests policy already sufficiently restrictive.

No Fed officials are scheduled to speak today.