2026-02-26 15:44:00
The problem with being all show is that eventually you have to deliver real results. Earlier today there was a Politico report about Howard Lutnick and how the vast majority of his $18 trillion in touted investment deals into the US is basically smoke-and-mirrors, AI investment, or a repackaging of things that were already announced.
Now, the SCMP is out with a report saying Chinese officials are unsettled about a planned April meeting between Xi and Trump because there could be nothing to announce.
“Preparations are inadequate, bilateral contacts anaemic and outcomes diminished, according to analysts and former government officials familiar with planning,” the report says.
According to analysts and former officials, the US side has barely shown up to the process. The problem is that no one can seem to get a decision out of anyone but Bessent, Witkoff and Kushner but they’re also preoccupied with many other files.
The core tension here is a classic one: Beijing wants a heavily choreographed, no-surprises event with deliverables locked in months ahead of time. They literally count the number of steps Xi takes to reach the restroom. Trump wants to walk in, trust his gut, and improvise a deal. As one analyst put it in the report: “Xi’s doing classical music and Trump’s doing free jazz.”
Expect Boeing aircraft sales and soy purchases to be dressed up as big wins. China needs both anyway. Nvidia chip sales may also be on the table, which some think is strategically misguided given Xi’s stated goal of tech self-sufficiency.
Taiwan will be high on the agenda from Beijing’s side, and there’s a real concern Trump could inadvertently drift into “peaceful reunification” language that would mark a significant departure from US policy.
In short: Don’t get your hopes up.
Also, this weakening in the US dollar against the renminbi is also getting some attention lately.
USD/CNY daily
