2026-02-26 04:10:00
Economists upgrade Singapore’s 2026 growth outlook and are increasingly split on whether the MAS will tighten policy at its April 2026 review.
Summary:
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Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) Q1 survey (released 25 February 2026) shows economists lift 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3.6% (prev. 2.3%).
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Nearly 47.4% now expect a policy tightening at the April 2026 MAS review, up sharply from 5.6% previously.
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Median core inflation forecast rises to 1.5% (from 1.3%); headline inflation seen steady at 1.5%.
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Government growth range sits at 2–4% (raised in February from 1–3%).
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Top downside risks: geopolitical tensions, AI bubble burst; upside risk: sustained AI-led tech cycle.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore’s quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters, released on 25 February 2026, showed a notably stronger outlook for the economy this year, with economists raising their median forecast for 2026 GDP growth to 3.6%, up from 2.3% in the previous survey.
The poll, sent to 25 economists on February 10 with 22 responses received, does not represent the official views of the MAS but provides a useful gauge of market expectations ahead of the central bank’s April 2026 monetary policy review.
The upgraded growth projection compares with the government’s official forecast range of 2% to 4%, which itself was revised higher in February from 1% to 3%. The stronger outlook reflects resilience in Singapore’s externally oriented sectors and expectations of continued support from technology and advanced manufacturing activity.
Monetary policy expectations have shifted materially. The survey showed 47.4% of economists now anticipate a tightening move in April, specifically through an increase in the slope of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) policy band. That marks a sharp rise from just 5.6% expecting tightening three months ago, underscoring how sentiment has turned as growth forecasts improved. The remainder expect policy settings to be left unchanged.
On inflation, economists see modest upward pressure but within manageable bounds. The median forecast for core inflation, MAS’s preferred gauge, increased to 1.5% from 1.3%, while headline inflation is projected to remain at 1.5%. Both measures sit comfortably within the MAS’s official 1%–2% forecast range, suggesting policymakers retain flexibility.
Respondents flagged geopolitical tensions and the risk of a bursting artificial intelligence investment bubble as key downside threats. Conversely, a sustained AI-driven technology upcycle remains the primary upside risk to growth.
With growth expectations strengthening but inflation contained, the April MAS decision is shaping up as a close call, with currency policy settings likely to remain the central transmission mechanism for any adjustment.
