2026-02-25 20:09:00
Israel’s Ynet reports that US strikes on Iran are increasingly likely. The report citing Israeli diplomatic sources estimates that the new Iranian proposals do not meet the American threshold conditions. One of the sources estimated there is a high chance the US will launch an attack.
“It’s hard for us to see the Americans walking this back,” another Israeli official was quoted as saying.
US and Iranian officials arrived in Geneva today and will meet tomorrow.
I’d estimate there is a $5-7 premium in oil prices already due to the probability of a strike based on the huge US military build up in the region. WTI crude oil today is up 9 cents to $65.72 and couldn’t sell off despite headlines saying OPEC+ could hike production on the weekend and a huge US weekly inventory build.
So it’s clear the oil market is ‘buying the rumor’ but will it ‘sell the fact’? If the US launches strike that are aimed at anything less than regime change, I think there is a risk of disappointment. We have seen this script many times before where only hours after the bombs fall, oil tops as profits are taken.
