2026-02-24 15:54:00
Tonight, the U.S. President gets about 90 straight minutes on live television, and traders will be listening closely.
This is the State of the Union, and this year it carries extra weight. Tariff policy has been messy, oil prices are pushing higher, and parts of the economy are starting to cool.
Speeches like this often include clues about future moves on trade, taxes, and foreign policy, and those clues can quickly shift expectations across currencies, bonds, stocks, and commodities.
Here’s a straightforward breakdown of what matters and why markets could move.
Why Is This Week’s Speech Such a Big Deal?
Last week was bruising for markets. On February 20, the Supreme Court struck down most of Trump’s sweeping tariffs, ruling 6-3 that he’d overstepped his legal authority by using emergency powers to impose them.
Trump didn’t take it lying down. Within hours, he signed a new executive order slapping a 15% global tariff on imports using a different legal tool — Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. But these new tariffs expire in 150 days, and Senate Democrats have already promised to block any extension.
On top of that, Q4 GDP came in at just 1.4% — well below the 2.5% economists expected — showing the economy is cooling faster than the White House would like. And separately, Trump has been rattling sabers at Iran over its nuclear program, pushing oil prices to six-month highs in the process.
Think of markets right now as a car driving on ice. They’re moving forward, but every unexpected jolt could send things sideways. Tonight, Trump gets to decide how carefully he steers.
What’s Trump Expected to Say?
The White House has kept specifics close to the chest, but reporters and analysts have pieced together a likely roadmap:
Tariffs: Trump is expected to defend his new 15% levy and frame the Supreme Court ruling as a mistake. He’s already threatened that any country playing “games” after the ruling will face even higher tariffs. Watch for fresh threats against China or the EU — those could move currency markets fast.
The Economy: Expect a victory lap on stock market gains, job numbers, and last year’s big tax cut legislation. He’ll likely argue that his policies are working, even as most Americans tell pollsters they feel worse off. Don’t expect him to linger on that weak GDP print.
Iran: This is the wildcard of the evening. Trump has been openly weighing military strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, giving Tehran a deadline to negotiate. Any escalatory language tonight — even a passing comment — could immediately jolt oil prices.
Immigration: Border crossings are at 50-year lows under Trump’s watch.
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How Could Markets React Tonight?
U.S. Dollar (DXY)
The dollar has had a rough run, falling roughly 10% since early 2025 and sitting around 97.9 on the DXY index. Markets hate uncertainty, and Trump’s tariff flip-flops have created plenty of it.
A calm, confident speech with a clear trade policy message could give the dollar a short-term lift. But if Trump goes off-script, threatens new tariffs out of nowhere, or picks a fight with the Supreme Court, odds rise of the dollar to slide further.
U.S. Stocks (S&P 500)
The S&P 500 closed at 6,909 last Friday after a volatile session thanks to tariff developments, but they’re stabilizing heading into the event.
What stocks want right now is clarity — any sign that trade policy is stabilizing could spark a relief rally. An erratic, confrontational performance, on the other hand, could push money out of equities and into safer assets like gold and government bonds.
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Oil (WTI / Brent)
Oil may be the most trigger-sensitive market tonight. Brent crude is already near $71 a barrel — up $11 year-to-date — with Goldman Sachs estimating roughly $6 of that gain coming purely from Iran war fears.
A hawkish sentence about military strikes could send crude surging. One diplomatic-sounding line about a deal could knock it right back down. If you hold energy positions, the Iran section of tonight’s speech deserves your full attention.
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y)
Yields jumped to 4.09% after the tariff ruling. Think of the 10-year yield as the bond market’s worry meter — when investors are nervous about inflation or government spending, yields rise.
If Trump doubles down on big spending promises tonight, yields could push higher. Any hint of fiscal restraint could pull them back.
Market Risk Sentiment
A hawkish, unpredictable speech could flip markets into “risk-off” mode — meaning traders ditch stocks and commodities in favor of safe havens like gold, the Japanese yen, and U.S. Treasuries.
A calm, reassuring Trump would likely lead to the opposite.
3 Key Lessons for New Traders
Speeches can move markets less than actions. The real trade usually comes from the follow-through — executive orders, congressional votes, military decisions. Watch what happens in the days after tonight, not just the immediate reaction.
Uncertainty has a price. The dollar’s year-long decline isn’t just about tariff levels. When policy keeps changing unpredictably, markets build in a “chaos premium.” Clarity — even if the news is bad — is often better for markets than constant surprises.
Don’t trade the speech, trade the reaction. Initial moves after major political events are often emotional and quickly reversed. Experienced traders tend to wait for the dust to settle before pulling the trigger.
The Bottom Line
Markets are walking into tonight’s speech already bruised — weak GDP, a tariff system in legal limbo, and an Iran situation that could escalate at any moment. Trump has a real opportunity to steady the ship with a focused, on-message performance. But he also has a long history of going off-script.
Keep your eyes on two things: what he says about tariffs (does he sound measured or combative?) and how he frames Iran (diplomatic off-ramp or military threat?). Those two topics will drive the dollar, oil, stocks, and overall risk sentiment more than anything else tonight.
The speech kicks off at 9 p.m. ET. Whatever happens, the market reaction will be fast — so make sure your risk management is sorted before he steps up to the podium.
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