Is this finally the time for gold to reach new record highs after the tariffs ruling?

FUNDAMENTAL
OVERVIEW

Gold got a boost on Friday
after the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The initial
reaction saw gold coming under pressure but eventually the market turned
around, and we reached a new monthly high as Trump imposed new tariffs under a
different law.

Overall, not much has
changed on the tariff policy, these new developments just created some
uncertainty in the short-term. USTR Greer has stated that the tariff deals
remain in place and they will be honoured. Moreover, the new levies actually
reduce the effective average tariff rate, so on net, it could be a positive.

The market might remain
supported amid the uncertainty, but I don’t think the big picture has changed
much. I would expect the gains to be pared back and the market to continue to
consolidate. The real risks remain a potential US-Iran military escalation which
could take gold prices to new highs or a hawkish repricing on stronger US data
which would have a negative effect on the market.

GOLD TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME

On the daily chart, we can
see that gold extended into a new monthly high after the US Supreme Court
struck down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs imposed on Liberation Day, and Trump
re-imposed new tariffs under a different law. The price is still trading
between the all-time high and the trendline, so there’s not much we can glean
from this timeframe. We need to zoom in to see some more details.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4
HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price broke above the strong resistance zone around the 5100
level. If we get a retest of the resistance now turned support, we can expect
the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a
rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price falling back below the support to pile back in for a drop into
the major upward trendline next.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1
HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a couple of trendlines that could act as support for the
buyers as long as the current bullish momentum holds. We can expect the buyers
to lean on the trendlines with a defined risk below them to keep pushing into
new highs, while the sellers will look for downside breaks to target new lows. The
red lines define the average daily range for today.

UPCOMING CATALYSTS

Tomorrow we have the weekly US ADP jobs data. On Thursday, we get the latest
US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PPI
report. Also, keep watching out for US-Iran headlines.