Private survey of inventory shows headline crude oil draw

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This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API).

• It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies
• The official report is due Wednesday morning US time.

The two reports are quite different.

The official government data comes from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)

• Its based on data from the Department of Energy and other government agencies
• Whereas information on total crude oil storage levels and variations from the previous week’s levels are both provided by the API report, the EIA report also provides statistics on inputs and outputs from refineries, as well as other significant indicators of the status of the oil market, and storage levels for various grades of crude oil, such as light, medium, and heavy.
• the EIA report is held to be more accurate and comprehensive than the survey from the API

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Wednesday was a volatile day for oil. Crude posted firm gains as geopolitical risk premia returned to the market, driven primarily by a sharp escalation in rhetoric surrounding US–Iran tensions.

The key catalyst emerged during the European morning session, when Axios reported, citing unidentified sources, that the Trump administration may be closer to a major military confrontation with Iran than is widely understood. The report added that any potential operation would likely be extensive in scale.

That headline prompted an immediate spike in energy, sending both WTI and Brent crude to fresh intraday highs. Prices subsequently held their gains and continued to grind higher into the US afternoon, reflecting sustained risk-sensitive buying rather than a brief knee-jerk reaction.

Market participants are now watching closely for any formal response from Tehran or additional messaging from Washington, as further escalation could inject additional volatility into the energy space.

Meanwhile, developments from the US–Russia–Ukraine trilateral talks in Geneva were limited. The discussions formally concluded with little in the way of concrete breakthroughs. Ukrainian President Zelensky indicated that peace negotiations would continue, while the White House characterised the talks as having made meaningful progress. In contrast, the Kremlin described the negotiations as difficult, underscoring the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the diplomatic track.