Silver is slowly recovering the losses but the US NFP remains a big risk for the bulls

FUNDAMENTAL
OVERVIEW

Silver has been slowly
recovering the losses in the past days helped by the lack of bearish catalysts,
but a crucial US NFP report today could hurt the bulls.

In fact, the market is
pricing 60 bps of easing for the Fed this year, so there’s a high risk of a
hawkish repricing in case the data comes out strong. In such a scenario, we
will likely see silver selling off and potentially reaching new lows.

On the other hand, a weak
report should strengthen the case for more Fed easing and might even see
traders bringing forward rate cut bets as some Fed members expressed scepticism
about labour market stabilisation. That should give silver a boost and act as a
tailwind into new highs.

SILVER TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME

On the daily chart, we can
see silver slowly approaching the most recent swing high at 92.20. If the price
gets there, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the
swing level to position for a drop into the major trendline around the 64.00
level. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase
the bullish bets into new all-time highs.

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4
HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action with the key swing level at 92.20. We
will likely need a soft NFP report to reach that level and even break above it.
If the NFP report comes out strong, the price might immediately sell off into
the trendline without hitting the swing level first.

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1
HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 1 hour chart, we
have a minor support zone around the 83.00 level. If we get a pullback, we can
expect the buyers to step in at the support with a defined risk below it to
keep targeting new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break
lower to pile in for a drop into the major trendline. From a risk management
perspective, it would be better to wait for the US NFP report at this point. The
red lines define the average daily range for today.

UPCOMING CATALYSTS

Today we have the US NFP report. Tomorrow, we get the US Jobless Claims
figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US CPI report.