Economic and event calendar in Asia Wednesday, February 11, 2026, China inflation data

China’s headline inflation readings for January 2026, the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI), will be published today by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. These monthly indicators will be closely watched for fresh signals on underlying price trends, demand strength ahead of the Lunar New Year and industrial inflation pressures.

Expected CPI performance:

Markets currently expect a modest rise in headline consumer inflation relative to the unusually soft readings late last year, with forecasts clustering around ~0.6% – 1.2% year-on-year. Seasonal effects, particularly higher food prices (especially pork) and services ahead of the mid-February Lunar New Year festival, are cited as potential support for a small rebound in CPI compared with late-2025 prints. That said, the overall level will likely remain well below long-term averages, reflecting still-subdued aggregate demand and weak domestic pricing power.

PPI outlook:

For the producer price index, forecasts suggest continued deflationary pressure, with PPI expected to remain negative year-on-year. Recent data showed goods prices at the factory gate still under downward pressure amid excess capacity and weak industrial demand, though the rate of decline may narrow slightly as commodity prices and input costs stabilise.

Key themes and market implications:

• A higher-than-expected CPI could signal early signs of broader demand improvement, potentially easing deflation worries.

• A narrowing PPI contraction might support sentiment around industrial profitability and credit demand.

• Overall, if both CPI and PPI undershoot expectations, it could reinforce views of persistent weak pricing power in the Chinese economy, implying continued policy support from Beijing.

• These inflation readings will also feed into broader global macro sentiment this week, alongside U.S. inflation and employment data

In brief, the key is whether CPI softness is mostly seasonal/base effects (post-New Year discounting, rolling holiday timing) or a sign demand remains too weak to absorb supply. Any surprise lift in CPI and/or less-negative PPI would help “reflation” sentiment at the margin; another downside miss would reinforce the view Beijing may need to keep policy support in play

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Also, Japanese markets are closed today for the National Foundation Day holiday.