2026-02-05 05:08:00
That will at least keep things interesting on the economic calendar in the session ahead. The BOE decision will be up first at 1200 GMT with a 7-2 vote in favour of keeping the bank rate unchanged at 3.75% expected. That will be followed up by BOE governor Bailey’s press conference at 1230 GMT.
The ECB will then step up to the plate shortly after at 1315 GMT before Lagarde’s press conference at 1345 GMT today. Similarly, no fireworks are expected from the ECB this time around. The central bank is well expected to keep monetary policy unchanged for the foreseeable future, awaiting material changes to the economic outlook.
As such, don’t expect too much to work with when it comes to the central bank headlines today.
At the balance, traders are still leaning towards more rate cuts by the BOE down the road. The next 25 bps rate cut is only priced in for August with just ~39 bps of rate cuts priced in for the year.
As for the ECB, traders are not expecting any rate changes whatsoever from the central bank in 2026 for the time being. That as policymakers continue to struggle to balance out economic pressures and inflation developments.
Looking to the day ahead, the central bank bonanza won’t be the only game in town. Precious metals will continue to be a key focus, particularly after gold and silver saw their recoveries thwarted yesterday.
Gold failed to hold a firm break above $5,000 on the daily close while silver has capitulated after briefly clipping the $90 mark yesterday. That’s a major setback and it shows how much tougher it will be to regain the buying momentum after the sharp pullback since last week. Profit-taking will now be a considerable factor on any bump higher, which might make for more of a consolidative range for precious metals in the short-term.
Then, there’s also going to be key US data releases to watch out for in the day ahead. The government shutdown delayed the US jobs report to next week and the JOLTS job openings data is also pushed back to later today. That will be come alongside the weekly initial jobless claims report, so that will at least offer something to markets.
And lastly, there will be watchful eyes on the continued rotational play in Wall Street. Tech shares had their backs against the wall yesterday already and after a slightly better start, risk sentiment fizzled and turned more negative instead. That sees the Nasdaq break below its 100-day moving average for the first time since May last year.
The technical drag could be the start of a material pullback in tech shares, especially now that the AI trade is coming under intense scrutiny. Investors are starting to poke at valuations and are asking firms to “show me the money”.
And speaking of broader risk sentiment, keep a close watch on cryptocurrencies as well. Bitcoin was hammered lower in US trading yesterday in falling to its lowest since November 2024 after breaking below the April 2025 lows around $74,420. The cryptocurrency is now under pressure amid a testing break below the $72,000 mark.
A further selloff and capitulation will continue to weigh on risk appetite and the broader market mood in general. So, watch out for that.
