2026-01-30 21:02:00
Markets:
- Gold down $530 to $4860
- Silver down $33 to $82.70
- WTI crude oil up 47-cents to $65.90
- S&P 500 down 0.4%
- Nasdaq down 0.9%
- US 10-year yields up 1.8 bps to 4.24%
- USD leads, AUD lags
It was a day for the ages in the precious metals market as gold fell 10% and silver fell 30% in its worst-ever percentage drop. It’s been a parabolic run higher — particularly in silver — and the air came out of it today in a crushing decline. The selling started in Asia but silver was still at $104 early in US trade; it eventually fell as low as $77.80. Similarly, gold had steadied around $5170 before tanking to $4697 at the lows. Both had modest bounces late.
The nomination of Warsh got some of the credit for both moves but I think that’s dubious, or fitting the narrative to the price action. Volatility picked up yesterday and it was an old-fashioned stampede to the exits. If anything, I’d say that yesterday’s fall in MSFT shares showed that nothing is safe and that reverberated.
The take from the market so far is that Warsh is secretly hawkish, despite his public comments otherwise. Time will tell but no one really knows how we will react once in the role and the data starts rolling in. Moreover, he’s part of a committee, not a dictator so rates will go where the data leads us.
On that front, the PPI numbers were hot and oil prices rose again today. Eyes are on Iran this weekend with persistent talk about potential US strikes. Trump brought down the temperature briefly (leading to a quick $1 drop in oil) when he said Iran wants to negotiate. Later though, crude recouped those losses.
Overall it was a crazy week that ended with some intense drama. Next week features another flush earnings calendar that starts with Disney and Palantir on Monday. The week will end with non-farm payrolls.
Until then, have a great weekend.
