Bitcoin’s (BTC) pre-FOMC rally on Wednesday stalled at $90,000 amid stiff overhead resistance and weak ETF demand. Still, several data points suggested that upward momentum may increase once the BTC/USD pair breaks above $93,000.
Key takeaways:
BTC bulls must flip the $90,000-$93,000 into new support.
Spot ETF outflows are stabilizing, suggesting a reduction in institutional sell pressure.
Bitcoin price must reclaim $93,000 as support
The BTC/USD dropped into a new range between $86,000 and $90,000, where it has been stuck since Jan. 20.
“Bitcoin is back to retesting $86,000-$87,000 range,” co-founder of Crypto India Aditya Singh said in a recent post on X, adding that the key support for Bitcoin is the 100-week moving average at $87,500.
Related: Bitcoin rallies expected to be short-lived until liquidity returns: Data
The chart below shows that the main resistance sits between the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $90,000 and the 100-day SMA at $94,000.
Zooming out, Bitcoin “may not be as weak as many people think,” analyst Jelle said in a Wednesday post on X.
The downtrend is broken, and the lows have been taken out in the weekly time frame, Jelle said, adding:
“Get back above $93,000, and bulls are firmly back in the driver’s seat.”
Bitcoin analyst AlphaBTC said that a grab of the liquidity cluster around $93,400 could happen next.
As Cointelegraph reported, a break and close above the moving averages opens the gates for a rally to the $98,000 resistance zone. A close above this resistance zone could signal the end of the corrective phase.
Bitcoin ETF outflows diminish
One factor that could trigger a BTC price breakout is a resurgence in institutional demand, which has diminished following heavy outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Data from Glassnode reveals that US spot Bitcoin flows are “stabilising, with the 30D average drifting back toward neutral after sustained outflows.”
While this “marks a meaningful cooling in sell-side pressure,” the BTC market is still “leaning more on spot holder conviction than fresh ETF-driven demand,” the onchain data provider said, adding:
“If flows can re-accelerate into consistent positive territory, it would strengthen the case for renewed trend continuation.”
However, data from Capriole Investments reveals that the number of Bitcoin treasury companies buying BTC daily has dropped sharply, reinforcing the decline in institutional demand.
Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury holder, is the only company that appears to be buying, adding 2,932 BTC for $264.1 million last week.
The purchase brought Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings to 712,647 BTC, purchased for about $54.19 billion at an average price of $76,037 per coin.
🔥 JUST IN: Strategy bought 2,932 BTC worth $264.1M.
They now hold 712,647 $BTC. pic.twitter.com/3lNqgcZYcl
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) January 26, 2026
Bitcoin’s chances of breaking above $90,000 will increase when institutional demand and ETF inflows return.
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