Bitcoin market research warned that BTC faced another bear market in 2026 if it was unable to reclaim its yearly moving average.
Bitcoin (BTC) bulls risk a reality check as BTC price action mimics the 2022 “bear market rally.”
Key points:
Bitcoin “appears” to be at the start of another bear market as price remains below its yearly moving average.
The latest rebound makes clearing the trendline at $101,000 all the more important.
Exchange inflows show sellers exiting in advance throughout this week.
Bitcoin bear market risk remains below $101,000
New research from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant warns that 2026 remains similar to Bitcoin’s previous bear market year.
“Bitcoin has risen 21% since November 21 in what appears to be a ‘bear market rally,’” it wrote in its latest Weekly Report issued Friday.
Bitcoin may be up more than 20% since its $80,500 lows in November 2025, but that is not enough to guarantee a lasting rebound. The reason, CryptoQuant says, lies with the 365-day moving average.
“The price of Bitcoin fell by 19% as it confirmed the start of a bear market after crossing below its 365-day moving average (MA). Since then, it has rallied by 19% to as high as $97.9K, approaching its 365-day MA that sits at $101K,” it continued.
“A similar scenario played out in 2022, as the previous bear market unfolded. The Bitcoin price declined by 27% after crossing below its 365-day MA, to then rally by 47%, and be rejected at its 365-day MA.”
The findings add more significance to the area around $101,000, which is already home to multiple resistance hurdles.
As Cointelegraph reported, bear market comparisons to 2022 have gained popularity in recent weeks and months, with forecasts including a retreat toward $65,000 during 2026.
Exchange BTC inflows ramp up
CryptoQuant thus suggested not putting too much faith in short-term BTC price strength.
Related: Bitcoin loses to gold as debasement trade with BTC at 2-year lows: Analysis
“At the time, many market participants believed the bear market was over, the four-year cycle was invalidated, and a super-cycle was imminent, sentiment not unlike what we’re seeing today,” it added about 2022.
“However, fundamental and technical indicators still point out that we remain in a bear market.”
An accompanying chart shows that the price trajectory is playing out similarly to four years ago, with 2022 and 2026 diverging from the prior bear market in 2018.
As a sign of what awaits bulls, the research also flagged multimonth highs in exchange inflows on a rolling weekly basis.
“Total Bitcoin flowing into exchanges has picked up to a 7-day average of 39K BTC today, the largest inflow volume since November 25, 2025. Higher inflows to exchanges can indicate escalating selling pressure ahead,” CryptoQuant concluded.
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