investingLive APac FX news wrap: Yen up, Japan finmin threat of joint intervention with US

Executive summary

• JPY outperformed, driven by renewed FX intervention warnings and Reuters reporting that some BOJ policymakers see scope for an earlier rate hike, with April in play

• NZD edged higher after a strong manufacturing PMI and further moderation in food prices supported the near-term growth and inflation outlook

• US trade policy risk resurfaced, with the White House flagging that AI chip tariffs were only a “phase one” action

• ECB signalled rate stability, but warned Fed policy risks could spill into global markets

• Geopolitics cooled modestly, with Iran signalling restraint; oil ticked higher but safe-haven demand eased, weighing on gold

• China moved to curb high-frequency trading, cutting latency advantages by forcing servers out of exchange data centres

The yen was the standout mover, surging after Japan’s finance minister said foreign-exchange intervention remains an option under the U.S.–Japan framework and that no measures, including joint action, are being ruled out. The warning against excessive or disorderly moves delivered an immediate market impact. The move gathered further momentum after a Reuters report said some Bank of Japan policymakers see scope to raise interest rates sooner than markets expect, with April emerging as a live possibility if weak-yen-driven inflation risks continue to broaden. The report underscored growing internal concern that yen depreciation could encourage wider price pass-through, complicating the BOJ’s assumption that cost-push pressures will fade smoothly. Yen crosses fell, with USD/JPY briefly slipping below 158.00 before finding its feet.

That said, the yen’s underperformance earlier this month has been exacerbated by political dynamics, with expectations that an election victory for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi would give her a strong mandate for expansionary fiscal policy, a factor that has kept structural pressure on the currency despite rising intervention rhetoric. A sustained recovery for the yen is difficult to grasp in this environment.

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Earlier in the session:

In New Zealand, data flow remained supportive. The manufacturing PMI jumped to 56.1 in December, the strongest reading since 2021, with all sub-indices expanding and new orders leading the gain. BNZ flagged upside risk to Q4 GDP and solid momentum into early 2026. That was followed by a softer Food Price Index, which fell 0.3% m/m in December after a -0.4% print in November. While food prices remain up 4% y/y, the sequential declines are an encouraging signal for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, helping the kiwi track modestly higher on the session.

In the United States, trade policy uncertainty returned to the fore. After imposing a 25% tariff on a narrow set of advanced AI chips earlier this week, a White House official said the measures should be viewed as a “phase one” action, with further announcements possible depending on negotiations with foreign governments and companies.

In Europe, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane reiterated that there is no near-term rate debate if the baseline outlook holds, but warned that U.S.-origin shocks — including any departure by the Federal Reserve from its mandate — could destabilise global financial conditions and force a reassessment in Europe.

On the geopolitical front, reports that a U.S. aircraft carrier is moving to the Middle East were largely viewed as stale, having circulated earlier in the week. Iran’s deputy UN envoy said Tehran seeks neither escalation nor confrontation, though warned any aggression would draw a strong and lawful response. Oil opened a few cents higher, while gold slipped as easing geopolitical tension reduced safe-haven demand.

Finally, China moved to rein in high-frequency trading, forcing servers out of exchange data centres in Shanghai and Guangzhou — a step that will reduce latency advantages for both domestic and global trading firms.

Asia-Pac
stocks:

• Japan
  (Nikkei 225) -0.05%
• Hong
  Kong (Hang Seng) -0.27%
• Shanghai
  Composite -0.22%
• Australia
  (S&P/ASX 200) +0.42%

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Have a great weekend, see you all on Monday for impactful China data on the agenda!